One of the biggest myths of betting college football weather is that every single element related to ‘weather’ automatically favors defenses and lowers scores.
Reality is, in fact, quite the opposite.
For instance, seven games on Saturday of Week 1 will have impactful weather conditions from a betting perspective. None of them feature rain, wind, snow, unders, betting on all the run-heavy teams, or anything else that may coincide with a defensive slugfest.
We have a proprietary college football weather betting model which only picks games over the total, citing favorable conditions for the offenses.
Here’s what it reveals for college football weather Week 1, including seven sleek picks that nobody’s likely betting.
College Football Weather: Week 1 Picks from Proprietary Betting System
Week 1 is the first time all year our “Weather Overs” model is active. It’s one of my personal favorite PRO Systems, and will be busy the first month of the college football season.
Saturday’s college football picks matching the weather angle range from small, non-conference games, to must-watch inter-state rivalries.
Here’s what we’ve found to be the best filters to betting games to go over the total.
Non-conference college football games have gone over the total 59% of the time when the temperature is between 85-106 degrees, the winds are anywhere from 0-10 mph winds and the over/under is lower than 58.
These weather scenarios and unfamiliarity between teams usually creates favorable conditions for offenses, and typically results in higher-scoring games than the market predicts — especially when they close below the key number of 59.
Below, we’ve attached all appropriate picks, including the game’s weather forecast, and any specific notes.
Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt Pick and Weather
Although both teams feature run-heavy offenses, 89-degree temps and the lowest winds on Saturday’s “Weather Overs” card (3 mph) won’t interrupt the passing games.
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226491″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
PRO System Pick: Over
Penn State vs. West Virginia Pick and Weather
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226441″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
PRO System Pick: Over
UTEP vs. Nebraska Pick and Weather
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226471″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
PRO System Pick: Over
Miami (FL) vs. Florida Pick and Weather
Miami vs. Florida’s expected to have the hottest conditions among picks from Weather Overs — 90 degrees.
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226493″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
PRO System Pick: Over
Boise State vs. Georgia Southern Pick and Weather
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226439″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
PRO System Pick: Over
Old Dominion vs. South Carolina Pick and Weather
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226443″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
Wyoming vs. Arizona State Pick and Weather
[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226456″ date=”2024-08-31″][/gameforecast]
PRO System Pick: Over
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