Identifying a hangover spot for a college football team may be subjective. One of our backtested betting models shows two college football spread picks that, without a doubt, bank on fading teams due for a letdown.
While bettors typically rush to bet a side, oftentimes it’s easier to pick which spreads to fade.
We’re using past, key data from PRO Systems to capitalize on a couple predictions for Week 11 which show two teams may not be equipped to cover.
And the proof is in the pudding.
College Football Spread Picks for Week 11
Plenty of situations can be classified as ‘hangover’ spots in college football: the week after beating a ranked team, fresh off a rivalry game, travel, you name it.
While I’d love to sit here and list every potential scenario, our 59% PRO System keeps it very simple.
Two teams are ripe for hangovers in Week 11, and they’ve only covered 41% of the time in the past.
If a home favorite is off a game in which they scored fewer than 10 points, they match our “Scoring Streak Fade” model.
Two teams are in real bad spots historically Saturday of Week 11. Let’s start with the Missouri Tigers.
The Tigers were routed vs. Alabama last week, and are now laying points at home to Oklahoma. While the public has often thought home favorites are due for bounce backs after poor showings offensively, history says otherwise.
It’d be a bet on the Oklahoma Sooners to cover (+1.5) and a pure fade of Missouri.
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The second team to fade is Oregon State, which is a -3 favorite at home to San Jose State. The Beavers offense mustered just seven points in their last game.
Although the Beavers are off a bye week, the model parameters still take into account teams of these nature, which may be overvalued by public perceptions.
Don’t be surprised if San Jose State wins outright, either: the Spartans match our “Small Visiting Dogs” angle.
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