There are 82 lined games on Saturday’s Week 1 slate, meaning there are 82 opportunities for bettors to make college football SGP picks.
Let’s face it: College football SGP’s are fun and if you’re going to bet them, you may as well include correlated legs with value.
A simple example of correlated legs is if there is a game expected to be played in strong winds, which historically make it difficult for quarterbacks to connect on long, explosive downfield throws, bettors might want to consider SGP picks with the full game under and passing yard unders for the quarterbacks.
So, how do you find legs that can be the foundation of smart SGP picks?
This is where our Action PRO premium picks, tools and analysis come in.
A quick scan of Action PROs college football Week 1 data shows Saturday’s Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) spread and over/under offering significant value on their own.
If you want to considering wagers on these individually, that’s not a bad strategy either.
However, by adding one correlated player prop leg, we can also spin this into a savvy three-leg SPG pick with +338 odds.
A Savvy SGP Pick for Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M
*Odds as of Saturday morning
SGP Leg No. 1: Texas A&M -2.5 (-122)
This line initially opened at Aggies -1, but smart money from professional bettors has continued to flow on the favorites, pushing this price out to -3 across the market.
However, FanDuel is still hanging onto Texas A&M -2.5, albeit at -122, but I’m happy to start off this SGP by paying a little extra juice to get the most important line in football betting.
SGP Leg No. 2: Under 47.5 (-115)
Wiseguys have taken another clear position on Notre Dame vs. Texas A&M, this time on the under.
Sharps have steamed that side of the total consistently heading into tonight’s game, driving this number down from its opener of 49 to a consensus of 47 at the time of writing.
Steam refers to sudden, uniform line movement across the market that is often the result of bettors with the resources and respect to move odds getting down on the same wager at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.
And just like the leg above, FanDuel has the total at 47.5 with a little extra juice, which is fine by me considering where the spread and over/under currently sit at every other sportsbook.
SGP Leg No. 3: Riley Leonard Under 201.5 (-114) Passing Yards
Now this is where I’m taking a bit of creative license.
In a situation where Texas A&M covers the spread, but the game also goes under, it’s reasonable to assume that Notre Dame’s starting quarterback, Riley Leonard, will underperform.
As a result, I’m buttoning up this three-leg parlay by adding Leonard to finish under 201.5 passing yards.
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