New Year’s Day was once college football’s biggest stage.
At least for one night, we’re turning back the clock with three CFP games that can potentially deliver 12 hours of consequential football.
I have two College Football Playoff player props for Wednesday — a pick for Texas quarterback Arch Manning and Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith.
Here are my two favorite college football player prop picks to pair with these colossal showdowns.
Wednesday College Football Playoff Player Prop Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Texas Longhorns” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tex.png” secondfullname=”Arizona State Sun Devils” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/asu.png”][/teammatchup] | 1 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Ohio State Buckeyes” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/osu.png” secondfullname=”Oregon Ducks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ore.png”][/teammatchup] | 5 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Rose Bowl Picks And Best Player Prop Bet For Ohio State vs. Oregon”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Best Bet: Jeremiah Smith Over 70.5 Receiving Yards” league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/osu.png” awayname=”Ohio State Buckeyes” awayslug=”ohio-state-buckeyes” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ore.png” homename=”Oregon Ducks” homeslug=”oregon-ducks” date=”Wednesday, Jan. 1″ time=”5 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Ryan Day and Chip Kelly sat down for a post-mortem on the 2024 regular season after their humbling defeat at the hands of Michigan. The Buckeyes needed to decide what kind of offense they’d strive to be during their College Football Playoff run.
One game and 42 points in, and it’s clear the Buckeyes want to use their passing game to open up their running game.
The Buckeyes shredded Tennessee through the air. Will Howard finished with a QBR of 98.8 after completing 24-of-29 passes for 311 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
He was nearly as good on the road against Oregon back in mid-October, but fans and pundits only seem to remember the ending of that game when he lost track of time on the clock and cost the Buckeyes a shot at a walk-off field goal.
That gaff aside, Howard was tremendous against the Ducks (326 Yards, 2 TDs, 95.1 QBR). I think it’s a foregone conclusion that Day and Kelly will put this game in Howard’s capable hands and let him cook.
Oregon’s underlying pass-defense metrics are all tremendous, but I’ve seen Howard find the holes in this defense before, and I have confidence he’ll do it again.
While I lean over on Howard’s passing props (247.5 yards, 1.5 pass TDs), I think there’s much better value in Jeremiah Smith’s receiving total.
This fall, the otherworldly true freshman has emerged as the Buckeyes’ top target. He led Ohio State in receiving touchdowns and yardage and finished second in receptions and targets behind Emeka Egbuka.
He crossed over the 100-yard mark on three occasions, including his 9/100/TD performance against Oregon in Eugene. Against ranked opponents, Smith averaged over eight targets per game.
He will have plenty of opportunities in this one.
What’s also nice about Smith is that he isn’t a one-trick pony for the Buckeyes.
Yes, he can come down with contested deep balls, evidenced by his gaudy yards per reception average (16.5), but he’s also a willing receiver over the middle. He was targeted 25 times this season over the middle in the 0-to-9 yards window.
Those opportunities translated to 22 receptions for 307 yards with zero drops. He generated 192 yards after the catch, burning teams on slants and digs repeatedly.
Smith generated 70 or more receiving yards in 10 of his 13 performances this season, and I have confidence that he’ll make it 11 in the Rose Bowl.
Pick: Jeremiah Smith Over 70.5 Receiving Yards
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Longhorns” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tex.png” secondfullname=”Arizona State Sun Devils” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/asu.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Ohio State Buckeyes” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/osu.png” secondfullname=”Oregon Ducks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ore.png”][/teammatchup] |
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Chik-Fil-A Peach Bowl Picks & Best Player Prop Bet For Texas vs. Arizona State”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Best Bet: Arch Manning” league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tex.png” awayname=”Texas Longhorns” awayslug=”texas-longhorns” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/asu.png” homename=”Arizona State Sun Devils” homeslug=”arizona-state-sun-devils” date=”Wednesday, Jan. 1″ time=”1 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Finally, some Arch Manning props!
The Prince of the 40 Acres may have to wait for 2025 to be the big man on campus, but he’s already involved in the game plan for the Peach Bowl.
Manning has been featured in short-yardage packages in the past three games, including his rushing touchdown against Texas A&M in the regular season finale. I would anticipate between three and five snaps for Manning against Arizona State.
So why is this worth a flyer? Because Arizona State has struggled with mobile quarterbacks in goal-to-go scenarios.
If you’re looking for a carbon copy of what could happen on Wednesday night, look no further than ASU’s game with UCF this season.
Central Florida subbed in backup quarterback Jacurri Brown for a zone read inside the Arizona State ten during their meeting back in November, and the shifty Brown found the edge and the endzone.
But there’s a boatload of cutups where Sparky is getting abused by opposing quarterbacks on the ground.
Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby burned the Sun Devils twice on the ground during an upset win for the Bearcats. Kansas’ Jalon Daniels and Kansas State’s Avery Johnson used their legs to find the paint against an ASU defense that surrendered touchdowns on two-thirds of opponents’ red zone trips.
If that TD% seems high, it’s not your imagination. Arizona State is outside the top 100 nationally regarding touchdown prevention inside their 20.
Those designed runs and zone reads will give Texas a numbers advantage in the red zone and I’m sure that Sark and his staff have noted ASU’s shortcomings in short yardage.
And finally, there’s the ankle issue for Quinn Ewers.
A high ankle sprain has one of the highest re-injury rates, which means that Manning is just one play away from taking the reins in this game.
At five to one, I’m willing to roll the dice on a short-yardage rushing score or extended usage for Manning in the event of either a blowout or an Ewers injury. I would play this down to +450.
Pick: Arch Manning Anytime Touchdown (+500)
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| [teammatchup link=”#1″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Texas Longhorns” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tex.png” secondfullname=”Arizona State Sun Devils” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/asu.png”][/teammatchup] | [teammatchup link=”#2″ shadow=”true” firstfullname=”Ohio State Buckeyes” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/osu.png” secondfullname=”Oregon Ducks” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ore.png”][/teammatchup] |