Action Network

college football-odds-predictions-picks-oklahoma state cowboys vs west virginia mountaineers-october 21

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Picks, Prediction: The Big 12 Bet to Make

Oklahoma State vs West Virginia Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2022/09/oklahoma-state-cowboys-updated-2022-logo-100w-100h.png” awayname=”Oklahoma State” awayslug=”oklahoma-state-cowboys” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wvu.png” homename=”West Virginia” homeslug=”west-virginia-mountaineers” date=”Saturday, Oct. 21″ time=”3:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+3″ col1awayline=”-115″ col1hometext=”-3″ col1homeline=”-105″ col2awaytext=”48.5″ col2hometext=”48.5″ col2awayline=”-105o / -115u” col2homeline=”-105o / -115u” col3awaytext=”+120″ col3hometext=”-145″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

The Oklahoma State Cowboys and West Virginia Mountaineers meet in a Big 12 battle Saturday afternoon.

If they offered betting odds on the first coach to be fired entering the season, West Virginia’s Neal Brown surely would have been an overwhelming favorite. Instead, he quickly cooled his seat and has the Mountaineers off to a 4-2 start.

A win on Saturday will cash the West Virginia season win total over a week before Halloween.

Oklahoma State enters this game at 4-2 this season off of back-to-back victories over Kansas State and Kansas. Everybody expects Texas and Oklahoma to meet again in the Big 12 title game, but both of these teams have just one conference loss and are right in the race to play in the championship game.

This game likely won’t garner many headlines, but it’s a sneaky good game in the Big 12.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/509930_NCAAFArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for college football bettors” firstupsell=”The best NCAAF betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/4fb1273b”][/appcard]

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Oklahoma State Cowboys” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2022/09/oklahoma-state-cowboys-updated-2022-logo-100w-100h.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/oklahoma-state-cowboys” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

After playing music chairs at quarterback for the first three weeks, it seems the Cowboys have finally settled on veteran Alan Bowman. They rotated quarterbacks early in the season, but Bowman has taken all the snaps over the last three weeks.

Bowman is in his sixth season in college football after three years at Texas Tech, two years at Michigan and 32 games under his belt.

Experience might be his best asset, though. Bowman is completing just 56.8% of his passes this year with four touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Cowboys rank 93rd in the country in Passing Success Rate, but they do rank 45th in Rushing Success.

Last year’s backup, Ollie Gordon II, has stepped up as the lead back and is averaging more than six yards per carry. Oklahoma State has really made him the focal point of the offense, as he has rushed for over 120 yards in each of the last three games. He’s the key for this unit.

And stopping the run will be the key for defense. That has been a strength for this team from a Success Rate standpoint, as it ranks 35th nationally against the run. The only problem is it ranks 127th at defending explosiveness.

Oklahoma State has been burned by a ton of big plays both on the ground and through the air. We saw Kansas State and Kansas each post seven explosive plays against the Pokes over the last two weeks.

Turnovers really saved the Cowboys, as they forced five interceptions in the last two weeks. That’s helped them overcome allowing 5.2 yards per play to Kansas State and 7.9 yards per play to Kansas without its starting quarterback.

_InlineAdBlock

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”West Virginia Mountaineers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wvu.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/west-virginia-mountaineers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Similar to Oklahoma State, the Mountaineers’ strength has been running the ball. West Virginia ranks fifth in the country in rushing rate, leaning on a strong ground game. CJ Donaldson has been the lead back, averaging 69 yards per game with five scores.

He’s joined in the backfield by true freshman Jahiem White and sophomore Jaylen Anderson. White has provided the explosive spark this offense needs, averaging 7.4 yards per carry with six runs of at least 10 yards on just 25 carries.

Quarterback Garrett Greene is also dangerous with his legs, adding 46.2 yards per game on the ground with five rushing scores. He’s coming off his best game of the season in that heartbreaking loss to Houston, throwing for 391 yards and two touchdowns while adding two rushing scores as well.

The biggest surprise is how good this West Virginia defense has been. This unit ranks 23rd in the country in Success Rate. The Mountaineers have been solid in both areas but are especially dominant against the pass, ranking fourth in the nation.

Cornerback Beanie Bishop has been their best defender this year, ranking second on the team in tackles while serving as a lockdown cornerback. He has two interceptions and leads the Big 12 with nine passes defended.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Oklahoma State vs West Virginia” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2022/09/oklahoma-state-cowboys-updated-2022-logo-100w-100h.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/oklahoma-state-cowboys” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wvu.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/west-virginia-mountaineers” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oklahoma State and West Virginia match up statistically:

Oklahoma State Offense vs West Virginia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 45 56
Line Yards 84 54
Pass Success 94 47
Havoc 17 21
Finishing Drives 71 75
Quality Drives 57 51
West Virginia Offense vs Oklahoma State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 72 37
Line Yards 75 48
Pass Success 66 114
Havoc 14 94
Finishing Drives 66 115
Quality Drives 74 55
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 77 72
PFF Coverage 92 118
Special Teams SP+ 36 39
Middle 8 68 37
Seconds per Play 24.6 (23) 28.7 (99)
Rush Rate 44.6% (117) 64.1% (5)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Oklahoma State vs West Virginia” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

This game is between two similar teams that run the ball well and play strong defense. West Virginia just does both of them better than Oklahoma State does.

Greene and Donaldson have been terrific running the RPO this season, and this backfield should be able to break off chunk plays against an Oklahoma State defense that ranks 92nd in the country in tackling and gives up a ton of big plays.

https://twitter.com/WVUfootball/status/1708276838781612528?s=20

The one area West Virginia has struggled in is preventing explosiveness through the air, but that’s not an area Oklahoma State can attack. The Pokes rank 109th nationally in passing explosiveness and lack weapons on the outside.

Plus, Bowman has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws this season and has really struggled.

West Virginia is sixth in the country in creating Havoc and should put pressure on Bowman and slow down the Cowboys’ rushing attack.

Oklahoma State struggles to prevent Finishing Drives as well, and I expect the Mountaineers to bounce back from that tough loss and pull away from the Pokes here.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: West Virginia -3.5″ linktext=”Bet WVU Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.400417061&selectionId=7017917&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

Posted

in

by

Mike Ianniello

Tags:

, , , ,