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Fresno State vs Wyoming Odds, Picks: Bet the Bulldogs as Favorites?

Fresno State vs Wyoming Odds

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You know it’s a big Mountain West game when it’s broadcasted on FOX. Laramie is the setting for this heavyweight matchup between the No. 24 Fresno State Bulldogs (5-0) and the Wyoming Cowboys  (4-1).

The teams enter this game with a combined three Power 5 wins, with the only loss between them coming on the road against the third-ranked Texas Longhorns.

This isn’t your average Group of Five matchup, so we should be in for a good one at 7,220 feet.

Here’s a more detailed look at the Fresno State vs. Wyoming odds as we make a pick and prediction in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 7.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Fresno State Bulldogs” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/fre.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/fresno-state-bulldogs” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Fresno State has earned its status as the only ranked Group of Five team.

It opened nonconference play with road wins over Purdue and Arizona State and now is coming off consecutive blowout wins over Kent State and Nevada. It’s safe to say the Bulldogs are rolling.

UCF transfer quarterback Mikey Keene has gotten off to a great start to the season with 1,474 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. Completing 69% of his passes, Keene distributes the ball well to receivers Erik Brooks, Jaelen Gill and Jalen Moss, who each have at least 245 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Brooks leads the crew with 485 yards.

Fresno State has needed Keene and the passing attack to make up for a struggling run game that ranks 118th in Rushing Success Rate. So far, so good. The Bulldogs are averaging 36.5 points per game (26th in the country), rank 22nd in Passing Success Rate and still have a zero in the loss column.

Defense has not been a problem, either. The Bulldogs rank in the top 25 in every meaningful advanced defensive metric, and if that’s too complicated, it has given up a total of just 19 points over the past three games.

One of those wins was a 29-0 victory over Arizona State — a game in which FSU forced eight (!) turnovers. Three of those were interceptions by Carlton Johnson, who leads the country with four picks.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Wyoming Cowboys” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wyo.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/wyoming-cowboys” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

It is hard to find a more hard-nosed, gritty team than Wyoming.

Texas Tech found out how tough the Cowboys were by losing in Laramie in Week 1, and Texas got a taste in Week 3 in a game that was tied 10-10 entering the fourth quarter.

The point is, Wyoming is a tough team to play, even if it might not be oozing with talent.

One area the Cowboys excel in is running the ball, especially when lead back Harrison Waylee is toting the rock. In three games so far, Waylee has 457 rushing yards and three touchdowns while averaging 8.6 yards per carry. He has rushed for at least 110 yards in every game he’s played so far.

He’s not alone in the backfield, since Sam Scott, D.Q. James and quarterback Andrew Peasley each have more than 100 yards rushing on the season. Peasley has not been amazing for the Cowboys, but he has operated within the offense and taken care of the ball.

Defensively, this is not a great Wyoming unit since it has allowed 30-plus points twice and gave up 26 points to New Mexico last week. That said, it does a good job of bowing up in the red zone and ranks 32nd in Finishing Drives Allowed.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Fresno State and Wyoming match up statistically:

Fresno State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 118 60
Line Yards 94 103
Pass Success 22 74
Havoc 22 53
Finishing Drives 48 32
Quality Drives 25 93
Wyoming Offense vs. Fresno State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 61 25
Line Yards 73 10
Pass Success 94 24
Havoc 59 25
Finishing Drives 73 14
Quality Drives 64 12
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 93 89
PFF Coverage 16 46
Special Teams SP+ 86 20
Middle 8 68 102
Seconds per Play 27.1 (71) 30.1 (120)
Rush Rate 44.8% (119) 60.3% (27)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Fresno State vs Wyoming” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

Even though both teams are 1-0 in the Mountain West, Fresno State is still a 6-point road favorite. As much as I respect what Wyoming has done this year, this seems like a very reasonable line.

The Cowboys are a solid Group of Five team. The Bulldogs are very good, and I think their offensive firepower will be too much for Wyoming to handle. Plus, the Cowboys are not built to come back from behind and that could prove troublesome if Fresno State gets up early.

Another thing that helps the Bulldogs is that the weather shouldn’t be too bad in Laramie. It’s supposed to be sunny with a high of 67 degrees and winds of 10 mph shouldn’t be too much of a factor, so Fresno State’s offense should be able to operate like usual.

Take the Bulldogs to win and cover in this one in front of a national audience.

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Mark Harris

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