Bowling Green vs Buffalo Odds
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Buffalo hosts Bowling Green Saturday afternoon in a Mid-American Conference East Division battle.
The Bulls are off to a 2-0 start in MAC play thanks to victories over Akron and Central Michigan, though those are their lone wins on the year.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are looking for their first conference victory after a tough start to the season.
We’re still a few weeks away from midweek MACtion, but we don’t need to wait until then to find great betting value in this conference. Here’s my pick for Bowling Green vs. Buffalo.
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Head coach Scot Loeffler is in his fifth season with the program and led Bowling Green to its first bowl game since 2015 last year.
However, he’ll need a big turnaround in order to secure a bowl bid in consecutive seasons.
One big reason for the troubling start has been a difficult schedule. Bowling Green will be playing on the road for the fifth time in seven games, which is more than any other FBS team.
These trips haven’t been easy, either. The Falcons have played at Conference USA favorite Liberty, No. 2 Michigan, MAC favorite Miami (OH) and Georgia Tech.
Those opponents are a combined 28-7, but that didn’t stop Bowling Green from picking up a historic victory over a Power Five program.
The win over the Yellow Jackets was a first against an ACC opponent and a second Power Five triumph under Loeffler.
Once this schedule lightens up with MAC foes, I believe the Falcons will be more competitive.
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After starting the season with four straight losses, coach Maurice Linguist has reversed the tide in MAC play with back-to-back wins. Picking up victories in October is nothing new for Linguist, as the Bulls are 7-3 under him in October in his career.
A key to the turnaround has been the play of the defense, which has only allowed an average of 11.5 points and 306 yards per game in the two wins.
This has also been a very opportunistic unit in recent contests, as it’s forced eight turnovers in the past three games. Devin Grant has been a key contributor to the defense and is tied for first in the nation with four interceptions.
On offense, 10 different players have scored a touchdown for the Bulls this season. Ron Cook Jr. leads the way with five, but the balance makes Buffalo difficult to defend.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Buffalo match up statistically:
Bowling Green Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 96 | 50 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 89 | 40 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 112 | 44 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 124 | 56 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 111 | 96 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 125 | 102 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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Buffalo Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
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Offense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Bowling Green Falcons” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bgn.png” slug=”bowling-green-falcons”][/teamlogo]
Defense
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Combined” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png” slug=””][/teamlogo]
Edge
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| Rush Success | 91 | 98 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 86 | 122 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 122 | 126 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 34 | 97 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 58 | 74 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 109 | 106 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Buffalo Bulls” logo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/249995_buffalo.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 30 | 72 |
| PFF Coverage | 97 | 83 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 125 | 62 |
| Middle 8 | 43 | 83 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.7 (126) | 25.7 (44) |
| Rush Rate | 52.4% (79) | 47.9% (110) |
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bowling Green vs Buffalo” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]
Everything in the charts above point towards Buffalo picking up another convincing win.
However, I’m not fully buying the Bulls in this spot.
So, my best bet is to take Bowling Green at +4.5, which I would play to +3. If this falls below that, I’d take my shot with the visitors at plus money on the moneyline.
I just feel there has been too much of an over-adjustment to Buffalo’s power ratings after the recent wins.
I’m not going to try to sell you too hard on Bowling Green, but you can’t ignore how difficult the schedule has been.
I make this much closer to a coin flip, so I like being able to take over a field goal.
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