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Virginia vs Miami Odds, Picks | Canes to Maul Cavs?

Virginia vs Miami Odds

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If you predicted Miami to defeat Clemson without quarterback Tyler Van Dyke and Virginia to knock off undefeated North Carolina, I hope you played the lottery.

Both of these teams will look to continue their winning ways when Virginia travels down to Coral Gables to face Miami on Saturday evening.

Luckily for the Hurricanes, Van Dyke is listed as probable as of Thursday afternoon, so there’s a good chance he suits up against the Cavaliers. That’s bad news for the Hoos, as they already enter this matchup as 18.5-point underdogs.

Here’s the odds and picks for Virginia vs. Miami.

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The Cavaliers were slightly outgained offensively on Saturday evening, but the biggest takeaway from the North Carolina game has to be their time of possession. The Hoos managed to dominate offensive possessions, as they held onto the football for over 37 minutes.

This was a huge win for the Cavs, who have seemed lifeless for the majority of the season thus far. Unfortunately for them, they will be facing a Miami team with ACC title aspirations.

Offensively, I would not expect the Hoos to replicate last week’s performance. They still find themselves in the bottom 25 of Rushing Success Rate and Havoc Allowed.

I can’t find much else that the Hoos do well on offense, as quarterback Tony Muskett can be a walking turnover at times. It’s safe to say last weekend could have been the combination of a bad UNC defense, as well as a complete fluke performance from Muskett.

Defensively, if you told me the Cavs had the worst defensive unit in the entire FBS, I would not argue with you.

This group finds themselves in the bottom 25 in almost every defensive metric, including Havoc, Rushing and Passing Success Rate and Opponent Finishing Drives.

They may have held Drake Maye and the Heels last weekend to 27 points, but the Heels still nearly eclipsed 500 yards.

Miami is the No. 4 team in the nation in Offensive Line Yards, so I would expect Hoos’ defensive front to get pushed around all night long.

If you’re a Virginia fan, you have to feel good about last weekend, but I think that celebration will come to a swift end on Saturday evening.

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As someone who backed the Canes last weekend, I was surprised to see Van Dyke ruled out before the kick.

While it was stunning to see Miami pull off the victory, I wasn’t too surprised considering Dabo Sweeney has become one of the most overrated coaches in the country, in my opinion.

Miami head coach Mario Cristobal has a lot of work to do to regain the trust of the fan base, but this was a step in the right direction. Luckily for Canes fans, I see a lot of paths to a big home victory in this matchup.

Miami’s offense continues to be efficient when Van Dyke is under center, ranking 42nd in Rushing Success Rate and sitting top-20 in Passing Success Rate and Havoc Allowed.

I expect the Canes offense to roll against this horrendous Virginia defense, even if Van Dyke isn’t 100%. This offense ranks 11th in the country in Finishing Drives, so if the Canes play a clean game, they should put up some points.

Defensively, I’d argue this is just as much of a lopsided matchup. Miami is top-20 in the nation in Defensive Rush Success Rate, Havoc and Line Yards.

It would be an understatement to say this defensive front will feast in the trench. With a lopsided spread and a low total, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this unit shut out the Cavaliers on Saturday evening.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Virginia and Miami match up statistically:

Virginia Offense vs. Miami Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 113 11
Line Yards 91 6
Pass Success 66 47
Havoc 125 20
Finishing Drives 83 88
Quality Drives 91 43
Miami Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 42 116
Line Yards 4 119
Pass Success 16 87
Havoc 19 109
Finishing Drives 38 108
Quality Drives 11 98
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 37 13
PFF Coverage 93 52
Special Teams SP+ 67 4
Middle 8 62 20
Seconds per Play 27.6 (82) 28.8 (99)
Rush Rate 56.7% (56) 51.9% (74)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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If it wasn’t obvious enough, I love the Hurricanes in this spot. Virginia is arguably coming off its biggest win in recent memory, and this screams “sleepy spot” for the Hoos.

This will all be contingent on Van Dyke’s health, but I expect him to play. He should take advantage of a horrible Virginia defense that’s especially weak in the secondary.

The Hurricanes’ defensive front should torment Muskett all night long, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple of defensive touchdowns. This is setting up to be an absolute blowout, and it may end up being my favorite play of the entire card.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Miami -18.5 (Play to -20.5)” linktext=”Bet the Canes Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.401497251&selectionId=558823&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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