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Utah State vs San Jose State Picks & Odds: Bet This Mountain West Underdog

Utah State vs San Jose State Odds

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The Utah State Aggies (3-4) will go on the road this week to take on the San Jose State Spartans (2-5). These two teams have made it through the toughest part of their schedules, as they are now working their way into conference play.

These two teams are largely similar — which provides for an intriguing battle — but I believe that one team is just a bit better and will be able to make this a close game.

Let’s dive into my preview and best bet for Utah State vs. San Jose State.

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Utah State played a competitive game last Friday against Fresno State, but fell just short in the end, losing 37-32. While the final score indicates a loss, Utah State put up a 69th-percentile Success Rate compared to just a 44th-percentile Success Rate for Fresno State.

The Aggies also averaged 7.10 yards per play while Fresno State was at 5.56.

Utah State’s offense has been strong this year; it ranks 50th in Success Rate and 19th in Explosiveness. The Aggies tend to pass more than they run the ball. They rank 59th in Passing Success Rate but 15th in Explosiveness and 29th in EPA.

The rushing game is effective when used, as the Aggies rank 40th in Success Rate.

Defensively, Utah State hasn’t really been able to stop anyone this year; it’s 121st in Success Rate and 114th in Defensive Finishing Drives. While the Aggies’ passing defense hasn’t been good (95th in Success Rate), their rushing defense has been worse, coming in at 127th.

The one area that this unit has excelled is in is preventing explosives. They are 14th in rushing Explosiveness Allowed and 11th in overall Explosiveness Allowed.

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The Spartans had a brutal schedule to start the season, but they have fared better over the last couple of weeks. In their last two games, they narrowly lost to Boise State and then destroyed New Mexico.

New Mexico wasn’t able to stop the SJSU offense from scoring, but the Lobos were able to put together some explosive plays, which has been an issue for San Jose State this season.

The Spartans are 116th in Defensive Success Rate and 97th in Finishing Drives. They rank 94th in rushing Explosiveness Allowed and 105th in passing Explosiveness Allowed.

This tough schedule of opponents skews their numbers worse than they probably are, but this is still not a strong defense. San Jose State ranks 101st in SP+ at the moment and is graded 120th by PFF.

Despite the tough schedule, this San Jose State offense has proven to be effective at times. The Spartans are 61st in Success Rate and 17th in Explosiveness, but they have struggled to convert drives into points, ranking 111th in Finishing Drives despite the sixth-best average starting field position.

SJSU has been great when it runs the ball, but it hardly does. San Jose State passes the ball at the 14th-highest rate in FBS. The Spartans rank 31st in Rushing Success Rate and 14th in Rushing PPA.

When passing the ball, they are 88th and 101st in those two categories, respectively.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah State and San Jose State match up statistically:

Utah State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 39 120
Line Yards 23 128
Pass Success 60 113
Havoc 102 126
Finishing Drives 102 95
Quality Drives 59 115
San Jose State Offense vs. Utah State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 28 127
Line Yards 72 73
Pass Success 87 73
Havoc 54 57
Finishing Drives 113 114
Quality Drives 60 83
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 61 92
PFF Coverage 43 68
Special Teams SP+ 72 121
Middle 8 17 99
Seconds per Play 22.3 (6) 28.9 (101)
Rush Rate 49.8% (99) 45.5% (120)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Utah State vs San Jose State” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

These two teams are built largely from the same mold. They are both pass-focused offenses with defenses that are on the weaker side, particularly against the run.

This makes the matchup hard to handicap, but I give Utah State the slight edge in this matchup, and I like taking the Aggies as underdogs.

I believe that Cooper Legas and the Utah State passing offense will be able to take advantage of this weak Spartans secondary to put points on the board.

San Jose State may be able to do the same, but in the end, Utah State will be a bit better. I like taking the Aggies +4.5 right now, as they should cover that number in a close matchup and potentially even come out with the win.

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Cody Goggin

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