Action Network

college football-odds-picks-predictions-wake forest demon deacons vs virginia tech hokies-saturday oct 14

Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech Odds & Prediction: Why to Bet the Under

Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wf.png” awayname=”Wake Forest” awayslug=”wake-forest-demon-deacons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/vt.png” homename=”Virginia Tech” homeslug=”virginia-tech-hokies” date=”Saturday, Oct. 14″ time=”3:30 p.m. ET” network=”ACC Network” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+1.5″ col1awayline=”-115″ col1hometext=”-1.5″ col1homeline=”-105″ col2awaytext=”48.5″ col2hometext=”48.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+100″ col3hometext=”-120″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

This is a great “how the mighty have fallen” matchup out of the ACC.

For the last two years, Wake Forest was an ACC darling and a popular dark horse to win the conference. Unfortunately for this iteration of the Demon Deacons, Sam Hartman is not walking through that door again.

Virginia Tech has been terrible recently, but was a powerhouse as recently as 2011. However, we’ve seen the Hokies slowly descend from powerhouse, to above average, to good, to below average, to now just not a good football program.

Someone has to bounce back in this matchup and change the course of their program. Just kidding, the winner of this game won’t see their program change, so thank god we can gamble on Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

_InlineAdBlock

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Wake Forest Demon Deacons” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wf.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/wake-forest-demon-deacons” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

When you look at this Wake Forest team, it’s really hard to come away with any conclusion other than its offense is awful. The Demon Deacons rank in the bottom 15 in Offensive Explosiveness, Havoc Allowed and points per drive.

As we noted in the intro, Hartman is not walking through that door.

In that light, current signal caller Mitch Griffis must improve. Of quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks, Griffis has the third-highest Turnover Worthy Play rate (8.4%). This is reflected in his passing grade of 56.9 on the season.

However, despite having less than ideal quarterback play (Griffis ranks below 100th in qualifying QB PFF grade), this offense hasn’t completely fallen apart around him. He’s at least doing enough to give the Deacs an average Success Rate (73rd) and Explosiveness mark (74th) when passing the ball.

Griffis hasn’t had a lot of help from the run game. While the Deacs’ Rushing Success Rate is 53rd, their rushing Explosiveness is 131st.

Look for Tech to force Griffis to put the ball in the air once it establishes that it can stop the run.

I see a lot of field goals and punts in Wake’s future.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Virginia Tech Hokies” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/vt.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/virginia-tech-hokies” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

I know I just outlined how bad Wake’s offense is, but believe it or not, Virginia Tech’s is bad as well.

The Hokies rank 97th in Offensive Success Rate, 91st in Havoc Allowed, 78th in Explosiveness and 78th in points per opportunity.

With those metrics, it’s unsurprising that Tech struggles both running and passing the ball, ranking 87th in Rushing Success Rate and 100th in Passing Success Rate.

We outlined that Wake Forest had a decent PFF grade despite bad quarterback play, but the Hokies, unfortunately, are in an opposite spot.

QB Kyron Drones has the 68th-best PFF grade among quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks (73 offensive grade), but the Hokies rank 106th in total offensive PFF grade.

I know above I said I saw a lot of field goals and punts in Wake’s future, so let’s just say I see a similar future for the Hokies.

_InlineAdBlock

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/wf.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/wake-forest-demon-deacons” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/vt.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/virginia-tech-hokies” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wake Forest and Virginia Tech match up statistically:

Wake Forest Offense vs. Virginia Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 54 60
Line Yards 82 81
Pass Success 73 48
Havoc 120 95
Finishing Drives 120 109
Quality Drives 113 58
Virginia Tech Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 89 44
Line Yards 111 86
Pass Success 100 63
Havoc 89 55
Finishing Drives 78 44
Quality Drives 104 33
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 39 61
PFF Coverage 31 96
Special Teams SP+ 73 44
Middle 8 29 29
Seconds per Play 25.7 (43) 27.1 (72)
Rush Rate 58.8% (36) 55.5% (55)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wake Forest vs Virginia Tech” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

If you were awake for this article, I think you know where I’m going with this.

These are two awful offenses, and the defenses are decent. I grabbed under 49 with a little extra juice, but I would be more than comfortable betting this to 46.5.

Give me the under.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Under 48″ linktext=”Bet the Under Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.392787191&selectionId=7017917&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

Posted

in

by

Action Analytics

Tags:

, , , ,