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Nebraska vs Illinois Odds, Picks: Huskers Can Keep It Close

Nebraska vs Illinois Odds

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With both sitting at 2-3, the Nebraska Cornhuskers will travel to Champaign to take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in a Friday night Big Ten bout.

These two Big Ten West schools have struggled at times this season, but they have also shown some glimpses of their strengths. With these two schools possessing largely equal talent levels, we’ll be able to truly see what each team is made of.

There’s one specific team in this matchup that I believe is being undervalued in the market. To find out which side that is, let’s take a look at the odds and best bet for Nebraska vs. Illinois in this college football betting preview.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Nebraska Cornhuskers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/neb.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/nebraska-cornhuskers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Nebraska has been dealing with multiple quarterback injuries this season, and it has not helped in Matt Rhule’s first season in Lincoln. With Jeff Sims on the shelf for the last few weeks, it appears that Heinrich Haarberg has assumed the starting role.

Haarberg has not been outstanding, but he has taken care of the ball through the air, giving him an advantage over Sims. This season, Haarberg is averaging -0.01 EPA per dropback, while Sims was at -0.39.

With both of these quarterbacks being better rushing threats than passing threats, the Cornhuskers have stuck to the ground attack this season. They run the ball at the 13th-highest rate and have done so with modest success, ranking 44th in Success Rate and 40th in PPA.

Defensively, Nebraska has been fairly average. The Huskers rank 64th in Success Rate and 36th in explosiveness allowed. The passing defense has been an Achilles’ heel for them, as the secondary sits just 86th in Defensive Passing Success Rate.

It’s the Cornhuskers’ rushing defense that I think could make a difference in this game. They rank 41st in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, 20th in rushing explosiveness allowed and 50th in Rushing PPA Allowed.

This defense is now ranked 41st by SP+ and will be the best non-Penn State unit that the Illini have faced this season.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Illinois Fighting Illini” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ill.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/illinois-fighting-illini” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

After having one of the best defenses in the country a year ago, this start to 2023 has been truly disappointing for Illinois. The Illini now rank just 113th in Defensive Success Rate, 107th in Havoc and 93rd in Defensive Finishing Drives.

They haven’t been successful in defending the run or pass this season, ranking 119th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 84th against the pass. Last weekend, Purdue dismantled Illinois and put up an Offensive Success Rate in the 94th percentile, leading to the Boilermakers hanging 44 on the board.

Offensively, Illinois ranks 32nd in Success Rate but has lacked explosiveness and comes in at 109th in that area. This has led the Illini to a mark of 73rd in Finishing Drives.

Illinois’ run/pass splits are an even 50%, but it’s been better when it has kept the ball on the ground.

However, its splits between downs are more illuminating. Illinois sits 13th in Success Rate on standard downs, but it’s just 108th on passing downs. Nebraska is a team that can stop the run, so I believe it will be able to force Illinois into the passing-down situations it’s struggled with.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nebraska and Illinois match up statistically:

Nebraska Offense vs. Illinois Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 43 117
Line Yards 25 127
Pass Success 122 66
Havoc 123 108
Finishing Drives 60 97
Quality Drives 89 119
Illinois Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 19 40
Line Yards 20 95
Pass Success 46 60
Havoc 110 105
Finishing Drives 74 90
Quality Drives 125 88
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 31 104
PFF Coverage 56 60
Special Teams SP+ 121 50
Middle 8 78 108
Seconds per Play 29.9 (117) 24.8 (27)
Rush Rate 63.9% (12) 50.0% (105)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Nebraska vs Illinois” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

From a matchup standpoint, I think things bode well for Nebraska here. The Cornhusker rushing attack should be able to blast straight through this paltry Illinois run defense.

On the other side, I believe Nebraska will be able to stop the run on early downs and force the Illini into plenty of obvious passing situations in which they’ll fail to move the chains.

Taking a road team in a conference game may not always be the best strategy, but I like getting Nebraska at +3.5 here and would take it down to +3.

Not only do I think the Cornhuskers can cover this number, but I believe they have a strong chance of pulling the upset and moving to 3-3.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Nebraska +3.5 (Play to +3)” linktext=”Bet Nebraska Instantly With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.398461153&selectionId=404450025&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Cody Goggin

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