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Louisville vs Pitt Odds, Prediction: Expect a Low-Scoring Matchup

Louisville vs Pitt Odds

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The opposite sides of the ACC standings matchup as undefeated Louisville travels to Pittsburgh for a Saturday night game against the Panthers.

After an upset home win over Notre Dame, the Cardinals sit at 6-0 with a 3-2-1 against the spread (ATS).

Pittsburgh holds a 1-4 record and enters this game on a four-game losing streak. It’s 1-4 ATS but 4-1 to the over.

We’re expecting mid-50s temperatures and rain at kickoff, alongside cross-field wins ranging from six to eight miles per hour. It’s not exactly the best weather report for points, so let’s dig into my best bet for Louisville vs. Pitt.

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It’s hard to imagine a better start for Jeff Brohm’s first season as the Louisville head coach. The Cardinals are 6-0 with three ACC wins and a monster victory over Notre Dame.

The offense is averaging 36.3 points per game and 7.1 yards per play with a 50% Success Rate. The biggest, and perhaps only, concern for the offense is a 17% Havoc Rate Allowed, which ranks 79th nationally.

The Louisville offense averages 275 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns on 28 pass attempts per game. Multiple players have gotten passing reps, but Jack Plummer is the clear starter, completing 66% of his passes for 9.9 yards per attempt.

His six interceptions are a problem, but he’s also thrown 12 touchdowns.

Louisville runs at a top-30 rate nationally, about 56% of the time. The Cardinals dial-up rush almost 38 times per game for almost 200 yards per game.

Jawhar Jordan leads the team with 653 rush yards and eight touchdowns.

Overall, Louisville has a 51% Rushing Success Rate behind an offensive line that’s generating 3.1 Line Yards per attempt.

The Louisville defense allows 17.7 points per game and 5.1 yards per play with a 22% Havoc Rate. It’s also allowing 4.7 20-plus yard plays per game.

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Pat Narduzzi’s team is riding a four-game losing streak after defeating Wofford in the season opener.

The offense is averaging only 23.4 points per game and 5.1 yards per play with a 38% Success Rate and 3.5 Points Per Opportunity. The Panthers are also allowing Havoc on 20% of their plays.

Pitt throws the ball 28 times per game, averaging 193 aerial yards per game. Notably, the team benched starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec in favor of backup Christian Veilleux. The new starter is completing 44% of his passes for only 5.4 yards per attempt in limited time.

Between them, Pitt boasts a 32% Passing Success Rate, ranking 128th nationally.

On the ground, Pitt rushes about 32 times per game. Three backs have over 20 rush attempts and 100 yards, with Rodney Hammond spearheading the attack with 196 yards and three scores.

Altogether, Pitt boasts a 46% Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line that’s generating 3.1 Line Yards per attempt.

Despite not being as strong as prior seasons, the defense remains the team’s strength. Pitt’s allowing 26.0 points per game and 4.8 yards per play.

The Panthers rank 28th nationally in Success Rate Allowed. Still, they’ve struggled to get opposing offenses off the field between their 16% Havoc Rate and 3.8 Points Per Opportunity allowed. Both marks rank sub-80th nationally.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisville and Pitt match up statistically:

Louisville Offense vs. Pitt Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 18 19
Line Yards 61 20
Pass Success 24 85
Havoc 45 92
Finishing Drives 64 81
Quality Drives 24 79
Pitt Offense vs. Louisville Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 45 18
Line Yards 50 21
Pass Success 128 37
Havoc 86 47
Finishing Drives 89 71
Quality Drives 127 14
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 14 114
PFF Coverage 64 91
Special Teams SP+ 48 102
Middle 8 91 108
Seconds per Play 28.4 (88) 28.9 (104)
Rush Rate 57.5% (29) 53.7% (78)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The line movement has been suspicious. Lousiville opened as an 8.5-point home favorite, but the 1-4 Panthers took all the action, including 73% of the tickets and 91% of the handle.

My numbers make Louisville a double-digit favorite, but I’d rather not bet on the Cardinals. I’m afraid of a potential letdown game for them following their big win over Notre Dame.

My preferred play in this game is on the under.

Both offenses rank outside the top 80 in pace, as Louisville averages 28.4 seconds per play while Pitt averages 28.9.

I expect a lower-scoring game between the slow-paced offenses and the rough weather report. Sharps seem to be on my side, given 91% of the handle is on the under, moving the line down a few points.

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Matt Wispe

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