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Liberty vs Jacksonville State Prediction & Picks: How to Bet Tuesday’s Game

Liberty vs Jacksonville State Odds

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Tuesday Night Football has arrived in Conference USA this week, with the headliner being Jacksonville State hosting Liberty at JSU Stadium.

These conference newcomers are the two teams at the top of the CUSA standings at 3-0. Unfortunately, the Gamecocks are not eligible to play in the league’s championship game due to rules surrounding the team’s transition to the FBS level.

Meanwhile, the Flames have their sights set on a trophy with this unbeaten start through the opening five contests of the year.

We really need a catchy name for these midweek games in Conference USA, but in the meantime, let’s dive into this Liberty vs. Jacksonville State matchup to find the best betting value on the board.

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Coming into this season, I was not a full believer in Liberty after making the change from Hugh Freeze to Jamey Chadwell. However, I have to admit that I was wrong with that thought.

Chadwell’s team has picked up his offense quickly, and the Flames are now the betting favorites to win the conference.

One of the keys to the strong start under Chadwell has been the rushing offense, which ranks second nationally at 255.2 yards per game.

It helps when he inherits the dynamic duo of Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley. Salter, a two-time CUSA Offensive Player of the Week, leads the team with six touchdowns on the ground, while Cooley has topped 100 yards in three of his five games.

A win here would tie the best start in school history for a first-year head coach, and it would put Liberty in the driver’s seat to make the conference title game.

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If I was low on the Flames coming into the year, I was even lower on Jacksonville State making the jump up to the FBS level. I believe it’s safe to say I was wrong with that take as well.

Veteran coach Rich Rodriguez has been known for his offenses throughout his career, but it’s been the Gamecocks defense stealing all of the headlines.

Rodriguez’s team has specifically been very opportunistic defensively, piling up 15 takeaways so far this season. The turnovers rank second in the country, while JSU also sits second in interceptions with 10.

The Gamecocks have allowed just 17.5 points per game, which ranks 27th among all FBS programs. However, the previous two opponents did find some success against this stout defense, which means the Flames have a chance to get something going.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Liberty and Jacksonville State match up statistically:

Liberty Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 35 2
Line Yards 30 4
Pass Success 46 77
Havoc 11 30
Finishing Drives 108 18
Quality Drives 22 11
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Liberty Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 52 62
Line Yards 102 88
Pass Success 127 23
Havoc 48 7
Finishing Drives 80 42
Quality Drives 123 18
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 60 48
PFF Coverage 7 46
Special Teams SP+ 93 86
Middle 8 56 65
Seconds per Play 29.3 (111) 21.3 (2)
Rush Rate 66.3% (6) 65.0% (7)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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When I look at this matchup, I really feel that the best units on the field will be the defenses for both schools. I don’t believe we’re going to see many long, sustained drives.

So, my best bet is the under 56.5, which I would play to 55.

If a team wants to contain a Chadwell offense, it has to be able to stop the rushing attack. Well, Jacksonville State ranks second in the nation in Rush Success on defense and fourth in Line Yards. This is also the same Gamecocks defense that’s in the top 20 in both Finishing Drives and Quality Drives.

Meanwhile, the Flames have struggled offensively once they get past the 40, coming into this matchup ranked 108th in Finishing Drives.

As for the JSU offense, it’s not a consistent unit under Rodriguez. Jacksonville State ranks outside the top 80 in Finishing Drives, Quality Drives, Line Yards and Pass Success.

That’s not good news when facing a Liberty defense that’s done a great job of limiting teams through the air and putting constant pressure on the quarterback. It should make the Gamecocks one-dimensional on offense.

From a tempo standpoint, the Flames are one of the slowest teams in the country in terms of seconds per play. JSU does have that fast tempo under Rodriguez, but I’m not sure it’ll be able to dictate pace without consistently moving the ball.

This same total would have cashed in regulation in five of the Gamecocks’ six games and in three of Liberty’s contests. I like those trends to continue on Tuesday night.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Under 56.5 (Play to 55)” linktext=”Bet the Under Instantly With QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.399476892&selectionId=25591&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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Brett Pund

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