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Kansas State vs Texas Tech Odds, Prediction: The Surprising Over/Under Bet

Kansas State vs Texas Tech Odds

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Let’s head to Lubbock, Texas, where the Texas Tech Red Raiders host the Kansas State Wildcats in a classic Big 12 clash.

Both of these teams seem to be trending in opposite directions as the Wildcats lost as big favorites last Friday night at Oklahoma State, and the Red Raiders are coming off a big win at Baylor.

This is a fascinating game, as both of these teams have put up impressive defensive statistics, which is a bit outside the norm for these Big 12 foes. With a spread at Texas Tech -1.5, this has all the makings of a classic contest.

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Typically, I’d be all in on backing the Wildcats in this spot as this is a classic bounce-back opportunity. However, I have some concerns about this matchup.

First off, Kansas State’s secondary ranks 85th in PFF coverage. That alarms me, as I think it could prevent K-State from getting off the field on third down.

Secondly, the Wildcats will be without cornerback Jacob Parrish and linebacker Asa Newsom, who is now out for the season. That gives me more reasons for concern against a fairly efficient Texas Tech offense.

However, I also like what the Wildcats bring to the table offensively.

Despite a rough game last week, quarterback Will Howard continues to be underrated. This seems like a good bounce-back spot for Howard and a Kansas State unit that ranks seventh nationally in Finishing Drives.

Defensively, I’m impressed with some of the metrics. The Wildcats are the No. 1 team in the nation in Line Yards and sit third in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.

But Texas Tech ranks 92nd in rush rate, so I don’t think that will play as much of a factor as many may think. With a lightning-quick pace and a shady secondary, this could quickly turn into a track meet.

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Although the scoreboard looked a bit lopsided last week, Baylor nearly put up the same amount of yards as the Red Raiders. We all know how bad Baylor has been, so it was a bit concerning that Blake Shapen was able to shred this defense.

I’m also not sold on the Red Raiders’ schedule, as they’ve really only faced two quality teams thus far. They should have covered against Oregon, but they also went to overtime as 15-point favorites against Wyoming.

The other opponents they have faced are Tarleton State, West Virginia and Houston. That’s definitely not a murderer’s row.

Quarterback Behren Morton put up some nice numbers last week against Baylor, throwing a trio of touchdown passes. Additionally, running back Tahj Brooks ran the ball 31 times for 170 yards and a score.

Texas Tech should find some success against Kansas State’s secondary. The Red Raiders may only be 80th in Passing Success Rate, but they’re an impressive 12th in Line Yards and 20th in Havoc Allowed.

This offense continues to move at a lightning pace (sixth in seconds per play), and since it doesn’t run the ball very much, I expect a lot of possessions between these teams.

This is setting up for a close contest, one that could very well end up in overtime.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Texas Tech match up statistically:

Kansas State Offense vs Texas Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 29 36
Line Yards 57 45
Pass Success 54 57
Havoc 13 98
Finishing Drives 7 43
Quality Drives 68 59
Texas Tech Offense vs Kansas State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 33 3
Line Yards 12 1
Pass Success 80 73
Havoc 20 27
Finishing Drives 37 26
Quality Drives 82 61
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 52 8
PFF Coverage 85 65
Special Teams SP+ 92 46
Middle 8 124 56
Seconds per Play 24.8 (30) 22.5 (6)
Rush Rate 51.8% (71) 51.4% (92)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I realize these defensive metrics look impressive on paper, but this sets up as a great spot to take an over.

Kansas State’s offense looked anemic last week, and many casual bettors will see that there were only 53 points in Texas Tech’s game and automatically take an under.

But I’m taking a completely different approach because there are way too many possible scenarios in which both teams have numerous scoring opportunities.

The Wildcats’ PFF coverage grade is a legitimate concern, and their injuries on defense won’t help the cause.

These offenses are among the best in the nation in Finishing Drives, which only further proves that points will be put on the scoreboard. This should be an absolute race, and I love the over in this matchup.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Over 56.5 (Play to 58)” linktext=”Bet the Over Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.399507581&selectionId=7017916&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]

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John Feltman

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