Wisconsin vs. Michigan Odds

Wisconsin made big news in its first game, thanks to a sparkling debut from quarterback Graham Mertz. However, the Badgers made bigger headlines when Mertz came up with a positive COVID-19 test, which led to an outbreak within the team and the cancellation of two games.

Michigan enters this contest off back-to-back losses in games where it was favored at kickoff. The Michigan State loss was shocking because of the three-score spread, but Indiana’s commanding win piled onto mounting frustrations amid a season that already seems lost.

One of these teams is falling short of all expectations, while the other has only presented a one-game sample size. However, the small sample is gifting bettors an opportunity to back the Badgers at a value.

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Wisconsin Badgers

Figuring out the Badgers is somewhat challenging because they’ve only played one game, with that contest coming against a team appearing to be among the worst in the conference. That said, expectations were high in Madison thanks to a 2019 performance that saw Wisconsin finish with a top-20 Offensive Success Rate and inside the top 25 in scoring.

Mertz will be eligible to play following his 21-day recovery timeline, with him likely to start if he’s cleared by a cardiologist.

Mertz’s debut numbers, which were highlighted by just one incompletion and an average of 11.8 yards per attempt, are likely unsustainable, but this Michigan defense has allowed quite a few explosive passing plays, so there will be chances for him to create quick scoring opportunities.

Should Mertz miss this game, the team will be down to either its third- or fourth-string quarterback. This lack of depth would most likely cause Wisconsin to lean on its running game.

In 2019, the Badgers ran the ball on 63.3% of their offensive plays and still managed to score 34.1 points per game. It would undoubtedly limit its scoring upside, but Wisconsin is more accustomed to playing a run-heavy attack, so the switch wouldn’t ruin its chances of winning.

In its one game, Wisconsin’s defense allowed a 28.3% Success Rate, and the only points it conceded against Illinois came on a fumble returned for a score.

Normally, I’d be hesitant to fully buy in on just 60 minutes of football, but this performance came after a 2019 campaign that saw the Badgers rank inside the top 10 in Defensive Success Rate and inside the top five for Havoc created.

Michigan Wolverines

After a win over Minnesota, Michigan fans thought they were in for a special season. However, everything following that game changed that opinion in a hurry. Minnesota is 1-2 and has had its defense exposed, while Michigan has lost consecutive games.

Joe Milton’s buzz as the “next Cam Newton” appears to already be gone. After completing 68.2% of his passes in Week 1, he’s dropped down to 60.7% for the year after two subpar performances. As a whole, however, the passing game hasn’t been a liability, as it boasts a 44.2% Success Rate.

Running the ball has been a bit of a struggle. The Wolverines have a Rushing Success Rate of 42.1%, and there have been issues along the offensive line. The line is generating just 2.56 Line Yards per attempt, and Michigan backs have been stuffed on 25% of attempts.

And coming off a week in which it managed just 13 rushing yards, this Wisconsin defense is unlikely to allow a major bounce-back.

Defensively, Michigan ranks 69th in scoring and its 38.1% Success Rate Allowed ranks 29th nationally. What the Michigan defense has struggled with is creating Havoc and allowing opponents to finish drives. The Wolverines have only created Havoc on 11.5% of plays, with its opponents averaging 4.04 points per opportunity.

So, while Michigan has been relatively successful at slowing its opponents, it has struggled to get them off of the field consistently.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Betting on this Wisconsin team is slightly risky, because it’s almost like backing a team making its season debut. Yet, with Michigan on the downslide and Wisconsin likely to return a potential star, there’s still value on the Badgers at this number.

I’m taking the Badgers -4.5 and would play them as high as -7.

Pick: Wisconsin -4.5 (up to -7)