Four underdogs Saturday of college football Week 12 are too good to pass up on the moneyline.
After combing through our PRO Systems and PRO Projections for Week 12, four underdogs continue to pop up from a variety of betting models.
Below, we’re covering moneyline underdogs of +135, +130, +122 and +118 — all with a great shot to win outright.
Let me explain why.
College Football Moneyline Predictions, Parlay Picks for Week 12
Here are some quick tidbits as to why these four specific moneyline plays made the cut.
- For starters, all four underdogs fit a betting model which shows underdogs winning more often than not.
- The second reason is our PRO Projections made two of the underdogs favorites, and another close to a pick ’em. That’s great value!
- Another solid betting insight: Two separate PRO System highlighted several of the four teams in great spots situationally.
Let’s work from the inside out.
All four teams Saturday fit Action PRO’s ” Small Visiting Dogs” angle. If an unranked road team is +1 to +4 on the spread and the over/under is 46 or higher, the road underdog has prevailed 51% of the time — a great edge.
[betlabsembed systemid=”221382″ systemname=”Small Visiting Dog (PRO)” leaguename=”ncaaf” filters=”%7B%22list%22%3A%5B%22the%20team’s%20game%20number%20is%20between%201%20and%209%22%2C%22the%20closing%20total%20is%20between%2046%20and%20100%22%2C%22the%20team’s%20rank%20is%20between%200%20and%200%22%2C%22the%20team%20is%20the%20Visitor%20team%22%2C%22the%20game%20is%20played%20during%20the%20Regular%20season%22%2C%22the%20spread%20is%20between%200%20and%204%22%5D%7D” amountwon=”$13,471″ record=”482-472-2″ winpct=”51%”][/betlabsembed]
Four teams are strong bets at plus money in Week 12:
–Florida Atlantic vs. Temple
–Michigan State vs. Illinois
-Arkansas State vs. Georgia State
–Kansas vs. BYU
Here’s where the support comes in from PRO Projections and PRO Systems.
BYU is -2.5 against the spread vs. Kansas. However, Action PRO models make Kansas the favorite, at Jayhawks -0.9.
FAU, meanwhile, is +2.5 vs. Temple. Our fair line is FAU +0.4. PRO Systems add more strength: Our Scoring Streak Fade trend shows that home favorites, after scoring less than 10 points their last game, only cover 41% of the time — bad news for Temple (off a 52-6 loss).
Arkansas State, meanwhile, is a projections/systems special. The Red Wolves are +3, but we make Arkansas State -0.4. Also, their opponent, Georgia State, is favored after scoring just 7 points last week — a direct hit for Scoring Streak Fade!
Finally, Michigan State is gaining traction from the Conference Matchup Heavily Bet model. This 56% model hinges on sharps betting hot sides in conference play.
Three of the four underdogs’ best moneyline odds are at Caesars: Michigan State (+130), Florida Atlantic (+122) and Kansas (+118). The other, Arkansas State, is +135 at Caesars and a market-best +140 at DraftKings for the best single-game price.
Parlaying all four together would be the best route at Caesars, where the price comes out to +2516.
For what it’s worth, plugging PRO Projections fair moneyline odds for all four teams into our parlay calculator registers a price of +1564!
Parlay Price: +2516
_InlineAdBlock