We’ve been factoring in PRO Projections to identify the top college football moneyline picks all week for the first big weekend card.
After running through Friday’s Week 1 projections, two moneyline picks feature a couple of underdogs that are at least 40 cents off the numbers we made: FAU vs. Michigan State and TCU vs. Stanford.
Designed by our college football betting experts, PRO Projections are our tailored betting forecasts. We align our odds with the market to find the best picks, then rate each one with an easy-to-understand A, B, or C grade.
If projections show a B- grade or better, it indicates a green light to lock in a pick.
Friday’s college football moneyline picks feature one longshot our models reveal an edge to potentially pull off the outright win.
If you like upset picks, this one’s for you.
College Football Moneyline Picks and Projections Friday Week 1
First, let’s start with FAU vs. Michigan State.
It’s not often a player, let alone the starting quarterback, tells you which bet to make. Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles accomplished that earlier this week, flat-out stating anyone betting on the game should take the over.
Admittedly, strong betting insights show value elsewhere in PRO, despite the dominating headline.
Rebuilding Michigan State is favored by double digits. When we look at moneyline odds for FAU vs. Michigan State, the standard price for Florida Atlantic to win on the moneyline is +450 (or 10 dollars to win 45). Our numbers are a tad off the market, making FAU more like +405.
Though 45 cents off the number is attractive on paper, it’s just a C grade from projections; the longer the odds, the more the edge diminishes.
Friday’s best bet from college football projections in the moneyline market, meanwhile, is for Stanford to beat TCU.
Consensus odds for the late-night Friday clash are Stanford +265. That price implies Stanford pulls off an upset 27% of the time.
PRO Projections fair TCU vs. Stanford odds, meanwhile, are more like Stanford +198. We believe Stanford beats the Horned Frogs better than 33% in the same spot.
Stanford’s one of the largest overall edges from Week 1 from our betting data. Our fair spread is TCU -5.3.
Make sure to shop our odds page for the best prices.
PRO Projections Pick: Stanford Moneyline
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