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college football-betting-prediction-iowa state cyclones vs baylor bears-saturday october 28

Iowa State vs Baylor Odds, Picks | College Football Betting Preview

Iowa State Cyclones vs Baylor Bears Odds

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Baylor hosts Iowa State this Saturday at McLane Stadium on homecoming weekend.

The Bears have won two of their last three over conference foes, entering this game at 3-4 overall and 2-2 in the Big 12.

Meanwhile, the Cyclones won consecutive games before their bye last week and own a surprising 3-1 mark in conference play.

This is a crucial game for both squads in their quest for bowl eligibility, which should result in a fun battle in Waco.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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After losing to Ohio in Week 3, everyone wondered if coach Matt Campbell could salvage a season that started with the suspension of key players due to betting violations.

Yet, Campbell turned the ship around and took down Oklahoma State, TCU and Cincinnati. Another win here would be just the third time the Cyclones have started 4-1 in conference play in school history.

Offensive line play has been vital in the turnaround. At this time last season, Iowa State had allowed 15 sacks. This year, the Cyclones have allowed the sixth-fewest in FBS.

On defense, Campbell’s team has been opportunistic, picking off 12 passes on the year and six in the past two games. ISU is 11th nationally in turnover margin.

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Like Iowa State, Baylor started slow, losing three of its first four to Texas State, Utah and Texas.

It remains to be seen if this was because of a demanding schedule or because Dave Aranda’s team was still maturing.

Over the first three games, the Bears had 19 players make their program debut, with 20 freshmen getting reps.

Things were on the edge of spiraling out of control for Baylor after being down 35-7 late in the third quarter at UCF. But Aranda’s squad rallied to a 36-35 victory for the largest comeback in school history.

If this young roster continues improving, this could be an exciting team to watch down the stretch.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Baylor match up statistically:

Iowa State Offense vs. Baylor Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 129 99
Line Yards 133 113
Pass Success 117 95
Havoc 50 82
Finishing Drives 75 101
Quality Drives 66 102
Baylor Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 117 60
Line Yards 110 40
Pass Success 110 32
Havoc 97 66
Finishing Drives 124 37
Quality Drives 64 33
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 95 124
PFF Coverage 16 99
Special Teams SP+ 45 75
Middle 8 45 74
Seconds per Play 29.4 (108) 26.5 (63)
Rush Rate 50.4% (79) 47.5% (113)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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While Baylor’s been better, I think the wins have been a tad deceiving.

Meanwhile, I like the improvements Iowa State has made.

So, my best bet is to take the visitors on the ML. If the odds move much further in the Cyclones’ favor, I would play them up to -3 on the spread.

Both Iowa State and Baylor most recently played Cincinnati, giving us a solid comparison point for these two.

I don’t think there’s a question about which team looks more impressive.

Iowa State held the Bearcats to only 214 yards in a dominating 30-10 road victory.

Meanwhile, the Bears were outgained by Cincinnati and needed a scoop and score on a kickoff return to win by three.

This is the same Baylor defense that gave up 7.7 yards per play and 35 points to a UCF squad missing quarterback John Rhys Plumlee.

Iowa State has an advantage in Explosiveness, which could be the difference in this game. Both offenses have produced explosive plays, but the Bears are bottom-five among Power Five programs in Explosiveness Allowed.

I trust the Cyclones much more to get stops on the defensive side of the ball, which should give them more chances to attack this weak Baylor defense.

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Brett Pund

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