Looking for Saturday’s edition of our staff favorite bets? Action EDGE members can get it here.
Does the idea of betting on UMass-Rutgers or Rice-Army excite you?
Then boy, have you come to the correct strange corner of the Internet.
There are eight games on Friday, including the two mentioned above and some slightly more interesting matchups in Wisconsin at South Florida and Oklahoma State at Oregon State.
Our staff has been hard at work sharpening their college football cards for Friday and boiled it down to their favorite bets. Let’s get to it.
All odds above are as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet.
Our Favorite Bets for College Football Friday
Stuckey
- Game: Rice at Army
- Spread: Army -21.5
- Total: 48.5
- Time: 6 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
As I pointed out here, the three service academies have historically performed terribly against the spread as a favorite, especially when favored by double digits.
I’m not a huge trend bettor unless it makes logical sense and this one does. Each of the service academy schools run a version of the triple-option offense, which limits possessions and keeps the clock moving at a rapid fire pace.
That makes it tougher for favorites to cover larger numbers. It’s the same reason why service academies have excelled as underdogs historically.
Rice isn’t any good; I won’t try to convince you otherwise. But the Owls should be an improved bunch in the second year under head coach Mike Bloomgren. They were one of the youngest teams in the country last season, playing an abundance of freshmen and sophomores. Bloomgren also brought in a few grad transfers who should give the Owls an immediate boost.
Rice doesn’t do many things well in any phase, but its run defense projects better than its pass defense. Its linebackers are the strength on that side of the ball, which will certainly help against Army.
On the other hand, I think Army is a negative regression candidate after so much went right for it over the past two seasons. The Black Knights also lost their top two fullbacks and defensive coordinator. And don’t forget Army has Michigan on deck, so staying healthy and bleeding the clock should be the primary points of focus in the second half.
One thing that scares me is third down conversions. Army led the nation last year in third-down conversion percentage, while Rice finished dead last.
Lastly, covering more than three touchdowns as an option team will be even more difficult when you factor in Rice’s pace.
The Owls are an absolute snail on offense, ranking 128th in Adjusted Pace last season.
Pick: Rice +21.5
Collin Wilson
- Game: UMass at Rutgers
- Spread: Rutgers -16
- Total: 55
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
Sharp bet numbers, not teams, right?
We can debate whether or not backing UMass is sharp, but betting any FBS team getting more than two touchdowns against Rutgers has value.
UMass projects to be +13.5 in Action Network power ratings. In comparison, SP+ has this number at UMass +10. The primary difference may be the offseason deductions made against the loss of players like Andy Isabella and head coach Mark Whipple.
New head coach Walt Bell comes fresh off a contentious season in Tallahassee. His final scorecard in his time as offensive coordinator at Florida State and Maryland did not produce efficient or explosive attacks, but his time in College Park does bring an advantage to this game.
While Bell filled the role as offensive coordinator at Maryland, Andy Buh served as defensive coordinator. Buh was hired earlier this past year as Rutgers’ new defensive coordinator.
The UMass defensive coordinator is Aazaar Abdul-Rahim, who served under Buh at Maryland last season. It is safe to say that any scheme presented by Rutgers will not come as a surprise to UMass.
No film exists on West or much of the new roster on both sides of the ball. Rutgers is 116th in defensive returning production, losing much of a secondary that was 101st in opponent efficiency in passing downs.
Pick: UMass +16
Danny Donahue
- Game: Tulsa at Michigan State
- Spread: Michigan State -23
- Total: 48
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network
I’d be willing to bet that at least two-thirds of my ATS bets this season will come on underdogs. That’s not to say, however, that I prefer underdogs to favorites. In fact, my favorite bets on a given slate are usually favorites (appropriately), and that’s especially true in Week 1.
When the public isn’t all over a lofty point spread, there’s often value in laying the big number. Since Week 1 offers no previous scores for bettors to look back on, it’s fairly common for bettors to be skeptical of heavily-favored teams, even when they fit descriptions that would otherwise make them public darlings.
To be specific, ranked home teams, which generally drum up plenty of support, are historically good bets in Week 1 when the public doesn’t pile on.
Such teams getting less than 60% of bets — Sparty is attracting just 48% — have gone 29-16-0 (64.4%) against the spread since 2005, winning 11.6 units for a 25.7% ROI.
Pick: Michigan State -23
Steve Petrella
- Game: Wisconsin at South Florida
- Spread: Wisconsin -10.5
- Total: 58.5
- Time: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
South Florida has started a 7-0 in each of the last two seasons (with the underlying numbers indicating they shouldn’t have been), only to see the wheels completely fall off down the stretch. Last year, the Bulls lost six straight to end the year.
So maybe there’s something about Charlie Strong’s teams starting hot. Maybe. But I’m willing to bet on this team and program just not being all that good, not that early-season success, which is mostly noise.
The Badgers have been a pillar of consistency under Paul Chryst in the last five years and I’m counting on a bounce back in 2019. The offense should be strong on the ground as always and punish a porous USF run defense.
Our power ratings put this game at around Wisconsin -17, which is a touchdown off from the market. And that scares me a little bit.
But home underdogs are overrated in general, we only give USF 1.5 points for home-field advantage (one of the 25 worst in the nation) and Wisconsin will start a rebound campaign strong against an inferior opponent.
Pick: Wisconsin -10.5
John Ewing
- Game: Purdue at Nevada
- Spread: Purdue -11
- Total: 58.5
- Time: 9:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network
In the first week of the season it has been profitable to bet bowl teams from the previous season when the line moves against them. Nevada went 8-5 in 2018 and won the Arizona Bowl, yet Purdue opened as 8.5-point favorites but have been bet up despite playing the opener on the road.
Since 2005, bowl teams that have seen the line move against them, like Nevada, have gone 370-315-7 (54%) ATS in the first game of the season.
This strategy works because bettors are getting a talented team (again, made a bowl last season) at a discounted price, usually as a result of an overreaction from casual bettors to a piece of information. This system is most profitable when the previous season’s bowl team is playing its first game at home or on a neutral field.
S&P+ has Nevada losing by 3.7 points on average at home to Purdue. That’s about a touchdown lower than the current betting line. Nevada is being undervalued at home on Friday.
Pick: Nevada +11
Kyle Miller
- Game: Oklahoma State at Oregon State
- Spread: Oklahoma State -14
- Total: 71
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
Despite their poor record in 2018, Oregon State had a respectable offense. Led by freshman running back Jamar Jefferson and his 1,380 yards, the Beavers ranked 50th in rushing offense. Unfortunately, they were brought down by one of the worst defenses FBS football has ever seen. That defense returns nearly everyone, but I don’t see that as a big positive.
2018 Oklahoma State was every bit of the offensive juggernaut that we’ve become accustomed to the being. They were also below average on the defensive side of the ball as usual. There are plenty of mismatches in this game and they point to plenty of, well, points.
Despite likely playing two quarterbacks in the opener, Oklahoma State is going to be moving the ball with ease all night. The Cowboys ranked in the top-40 in nearly every meaningful offensive category in 2018, including adjusted pace where they were seventh. That pace is going to mean very quick scores against an Oregon State stop unit that ranked in the bottom-five of almost every defensive category.
When the Beavers have the ball, they’ll use an above average tempo to keep Oklahoma State on its toes. While Jefferson is by far their best offensive option, they added former Nebraska receiver TyJon Lindsay as a nice weapon for QB Jake Luton.
They don’t have nearly the offense that Oklahoma State has but they should be able to pitch in enough to get this total over the number.
Pick: Over 71