Week 2 was a good one for the market’s sharpest college football bettors.
Last weekend’s version of this column, which details the picks that pro football bettors are making each and every week, went 4-1 against the spread (ATS), with Pittsburgh +6 finishing as the only loser when the Panthers lost by seven points to the Tennessee Volunteers.
So, riding the momentum from last weekend, what do the wiseguys have in store for Saturday’s college football Week 3 slate?
Using the Action Network’s betting data, let’s examine the latest college football odds for Week 3, including picks for:
- No. 6 Oklahoma vs. Nebraska (12 p.m. ET)
- California vs. Notre Dame (2:30 p.m. ET)
- Tulane vs. Kansas State (3 p.m. ET)
- No. 12 BYU vs. No. 25 Oregon (3:30 p.m. ET)
- Fresno State vs. No. 7 USC (10:30 p.m. ET)
College Football Odds, Picks Week 3
*Odds and picks as of Saturday morning
Oklahoma vs. Nebraska Pick
12 p.m. ET | FOX
Odds movement for Oklahoma vs. Nebraska has been one word: crazy.
On Sunday, Nebraska reached +14 on the spread against Oklahoma, but that line has been pounded down to +11.5 as of the time of writing.
What’s truly interesting about Oklahoma vs. Nebraska is that sharps have already steamed this number to +11.5, and the Action Network’s College Football PRO Projections are still finding value with the Huskers.
Our betting model projects this spread at Nebraska +6.5, resulting in a very nice 4.7% edge.
In addition, this line is +12 at BetRivers as of Saturday morning, providing even more value for the Huskers and the points.
PRO Report Pick: Nebraska +12
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California vs. Notre Dame Pick
2:30 p.m. ET | NBC
How public of a team is Notre Dame? Somehow, someway, the Irish have convinced 72% of spread bettors to lay the points in this game.
Sharps, on the other hand, are looking toward the over/under for value.
Smart money has drive the California vs. Notre Dame total down from 43.5 to 40.5 at DraftKings, but we can do even better.
As always, be sure to shop for the best line as a handful of spots, like BetMGM, are still offering this total at 41.
PRO Report Pick: Under 41
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Tulane vs. Kansas State Pick
3 p.m. ET | ESPN+
The Tulane vs. Kansas State under easily qualifies for our Windy Unders System as average breezes of 18-20 mph are forecasted for Saturday afternoon’s game.
It’s extremely unlikely that the public has been paying attention to a weather forecast for a game like Tulane vs. Kansas State, but savvy bettors are and can take advantage by playing this under.
PRO Report Pick: Under 49.5
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BYU vs. Oregon Pick
3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
While it’s not weather related and this bet focuses on the spread instead of the total, BYU vs. Oregon is similar to the game above in that respected bettors are leveraging a historically-profitable betting system.
BYU is a match for the Action Network’s Scoring Streak Fade PRO Betting System, which is 295-196-6 (60%) ATS since 2005 by fading teams like Oregon, which have struggled offensively in recent games.
Market movers have clearly taken note by driving the Cougars from +5.5 to +3.5 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
PRO Report Pick: BYU +3.5
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Fresno State vs. USC Pick
10:30 p.m. ET | FOX
And for those looking for a little late-night college football action, Fresno State vs. USC is so nice that the wiseguys are betting it twice.
Let’s start with the spread.
Fresno State was initially available at +17.5 over the weekend at FanDuel, and sharps have been falling over themselves to get down on the Bulldogs to this point.
Multiple waves of smart money have flooded the underdogs in this game, leaving oddsmakers no choice but to make significant adjustments to this spread.
The story is essentially the same for the over as well.
This total sat at 69.5 on Sunday afternoon, and pros have consistently taken a position on the Fresno State vs. USC over throughout the week, rocketing this number up to the latest line of between 72 to 72.5, depending on the shop.
PRO Report Pick: Fresno State +11.5 | Over 72
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