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Charlotte vs Navy Odds, Picks, Prediction, and Game Preview for 10/19/2024

The Charlotte 49ers (3-3, 2-0) head to Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday afternoon to take on the undefeated Navy Midshipmen (5-0, 3-0) in an AAC clash.

Navy has been a cash cow this season, covering the spread in all 5 of its games. However, given the way the Midshipmen play, the 49ers have potential to hang around.

The Mids enter Saturday’s game as a -16.5 favorite with the over/under sitting at 55.5.

So, where does the betting value lie in this American Athletic Conference contest? Let’s dive into my Charlotte vs Navy predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 19.

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  • Charlotte vs Navy Pick: Charlotte +16.5

My Charlotte vs Navy best bet is on the 49ers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Charlotte vs Navy Odds, Spread, Betting Lines

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  • Charlotte vs Navy Point Spread: Charlotte +16.5 (-110) · Navy -16.5 (-110)
  • Charlotte vs Navy Total: Over/Under 56.5
  • Charlotte vs Navy Moneyline: Charlotte +550 · Navy -800

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Call me dumb or un-American, but I just think inflation has finally hit Navy after such smashing ATS success to start the year.

Plus, a service academy laying this type of number will always pique my interest as a potential fade candidate when not playing an absolute corpse.

It’s also worth mentioning that Navy has a huge game against Notre Dame on deck, which could decide its playoff fate. So, it’s possible the Mids potentially get caught peeking ahead a bit or take their foot off the gas a bit sooner than usual.

Both teams here will benefit from a bye week, but that should be more beneficial for Charlotte since Navy runs such a unique offense. Plus, the 49ers have also dealt with more injuries than their counterpart.

It also wouldn’t shock me if Navy spent a portion of its bye week preparing for Notre Dame, which it hosts next week.

The 49ers also have the element of surprise working in their favor with the potential return of Florida transfer quarterback Max Brown from injury. If he can’t go, it will be true freshman Deshawn Purdie, who has led Charlotte to two straight victories after relieving Trexler Ivey in a comeback victory prior to getting the start in a 55-24 rout of ECU prior to the off week.

The Navy-modified Delaware wing-T combined with its vintage triple option with much more play-action and motion under new offensive coordinator Drew Cronic is firing on all cylinders.

However, Charlotte at least grades out adequately in Stuff Rate and Line Yards — two areas I always focus on when handicapping defenses against service academies.

And while Navy’s offensive output against Memphis was super impressive, it caught the Tigers in an ideal situational spot.

The Midshipmen’s other four wins have come against an FCS school (Bucknell) and three corpses in Temple, UAB and Air Force — a trio that has a 1-15 combined record against FBS opponents.

And like Army, there’s likely regression coming in the high-variance categories such as red-zone efficiency and turnover margin.

If you include FCS schools, Navy’s strength of schedule ranks outside the top 140, per Sagarin, while Charlotte has played a significantly tougher slate of opponents, including Indiana, James Madison and North Carolina.

[expertpickswidget league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226925″ date=”20241019″ week=”” seasontype=””][/expertpickswidget]

Charlotte vs Navy Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Charlotte and Navy match up statistically:

Charlotte Offense vs. Navy Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 114 102
Line Yards 126 121
Pass Success 113 17
Havoc 120 68
Finishing Drives 110 21
Quality Drives 87 22
Navy Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 5 92
Line Yards 17 83
Pass Success 8 64
Havoc 1 37
Finishing Drives 8 74
Quality Drives 18 109
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 94 25
PFF Coverage 105 33
Special Teams SP+ 49 64
Middle 8 124 1
Seconds per Play 28.8 (100) 29.5 (116)
Rush Rate 51% (94) 77% (3)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I’m still not fully sold on a Navy defense that gave up nearly 700 yards to Memphis and just under 400 to UAB with a third-string quarterback.

Charlotte will also have some opportunities to hit some explosive plays — which has been the majority of its offensive output — against a Mids defense that has proven vulnerable in that department even against a joke of a schedule.

Ultimately, I’ll take the road pups in what I think is an overinflated line. Last year’s final score between these two would certainly work when Navy came out on top, 14-0, despite each team gaining exactly 265 total yards.

It’s also worth noting that since 2005, Navy has gone just 5-13 against the spread (27.8%) as a two-touchdown plus favorite against FBS competition.

Pick: Charlotte +16.5 (-110, bet365) |  Play to +16(-110)

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Location: Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, MD
Date: Saturday, Oct. 19
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: CBS Sports Network

Navy will host Charlotte in Annapolis, Maryland, on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.

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  • Charlotte has landed 23% of the tickets and generated 42% of the money.
  • The over has taken 53% of the bets and 68% of the cash.

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[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226925″ date=”2024-10-19″][/gameforecast]

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