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Central Michigan vs Notre Dame Odds & Prediction: Fighting Irish to Roll

Central Michigan vs Notre Dame Odds

[gamematchup league=”ncaaf” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/cmc.png” awayname=”Central Michigan” awayslug=”central-michigan-chippewas” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/nd.png” homename=”Notre Dame” homeslug=”notre-dame-fighting-irish” date=”Saturday, Sept. 16″ time=”2:30 p.m. ET” network=”Peacock” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awaytext=”+34.5″ col1awayline=”-110″ col1hometext=”-34.5″ col1homeline=”-110″ col2awaytext=”51.5″ col2hometext=”51.5″ col2awayline=”-110o / -110u” col2homeline=”-110o / -110u” col3awaytext=”+2000″ col3hometext=”-10000″ col3awayline=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gamematchup]

Notre Dame (3-0) is off to a hot start, but Central Michigan (1-1) will look to slow it down.

Sometimes, digging into the metrics can reveal that a team isn’t who you thought they were. But in this case, Notre Dame may be even better than we believe.

Without further ado, let’s take a look at this Central Michigan vs. Notre Dame betting preview.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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I don’t think that we really know who the Chippewas are yet. In Week 1, they had just a 23rd-percentile Success Rate and third-percentile EPA per play against Michigan State. Last week, they took on New Hampshire — a respectable FCS team — and narrowly won, 45-42.

In its second game, Central Michigan’s offense looked better, putting up 6.78 yards per play and a 69th-percentile EPA per play.

However, the New Hampshire offense had 8.41 yards per play and a 91st-percentile EPA per play. By postgame win expectancy, this game should have resembled something closer to a double-digit CMU loss (12.4 points).

The Chippewas mostly stick to the ground game, rushing at the 14th-highest rate in the country. As a result, they rank 89th in Rushing Success and 58th in PPA.

When forced to throw the ball, they’ve struggled. Central Michigan ranks 128th in Passing Success Rate and 120th in passing PPA.

The defense follows a similar path. Against the run, Central Michigan is a respectable 54th in Success Rate.  However, against the pass, CMU ranks 102nd in Success Rate and 120th in PPA. It’s also 111th in Passing Explosiveness, which will be an issue against Sam Hartman and Notre Dame.

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The Irish have outscored opponents 143-30. Easily beating Tennessee State and Navy isn’t the most impressive resume in the world, but Notre Dame also went out and took care of NC State, 45-24, last weekend. 

The 21-point win was impressive, but SP+ actually had the adjusted margin of this game — based on post-game win expectancy — at 26.7 points.

Hartman has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country and is averaging 0.51 EPA per dropback. Notre Dame ranks 22nd in Passing Success Rate and eighth in passing PPA.

Overall, the Irish are second in Finishing Drives, 12th in Success Rate and have the 24th-most explosive offense in FBS.

We may still be underrating this offense’s ceiling.

The Notre Dame defense hasn’t been bad either. It ranks 13th in Success Rate and 35th in Finishing Drives, despite starting with the 104th-best field position.

The rushing defense ranks 44th in Success Rate, but the passing defense has been the strength, ranking eighth in Success Rate and 10th in PPA.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Central Michigan and Notre Dame match up statistically:

Central Michigan Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 90 43
Line Yards 82 24
Pass Success 128 9
Havoc 121 41
Finishing Drives 104 33
Quality Drives 102 16
Notre Dame Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 20 56
Line Yards 68 69
Pass Success 20 118
Havoc 56 82
Finishing Drives 5 102
Quality Drives 18 105
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 18 83
PFF Coverage 126 65
Special Teams SP+ 44 130
Middle 8 107 41
Seconds per Play 28.8 (91) 30.0 (114)
Rush Rate 67.4% (10) 56.4% (40)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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I think this is a case of two teams trending in opposite directions. Notre Dame has been on a roll, and when looking at the underlying metrics, the Irish have been even better than the scoreboard has shown.

The opposite has been true for CMU, as it should be 0-2 with a loss to an FCS team.

This is a huge number to lay, but I just can’t back Central Michigan. Hartman and the Irish offense will have a field day against CMU, and the Chippewas don’t have enough offensive firepower to put up a fight against Notre Dame. 

I think the Irish can cover the 34.5 points and win with ease if they play like they have been early this season.

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Cody Goggin

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