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Bowling Green vs Toledo Prediction, Odds, Picks — October 26, 2024

The Bowling Green Falcons (3-4, 2-1 MAC) travel to take on the Toledo Rockets (5-2, 2-1) in the “Battle of I-75” on Saturday, Oct. 26. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+.

The Falcons are coming off a 27-6 victory over Kent State. While the win came over one of the worst teams in the country, Bowling Green’s stars really showed up to play.

The Rockets, meanwhile, made a statement in the MAC with a 17-6 win over Northern Illinois in DeKalb.

We have seen the line on this game move down from a Sunday opener of Toledo -4. The Rockets are currently 2.5-point favorites on the spread with a 49.5-point over/under.

Let’s dive into my Bowling Green vs Toledo predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 26.

Bowling Green vs Toledo Information & Odds

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  • Bowling Green vs Toledo Point Spread: Bowling Green +2.5 (-110) · Toledo -2.5 (-110)
  • Bowling Green vs Toledo Total: Over/Under 48.5
  • Bowling Green vs Toledo Moneyline: Bowling Green +115 · Toledo -135

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Bowling Green vs Toledo Picks: Bowling Green ML (+115)

My Bowling Green vs Toledo best bet is for Bowling Green to win the game, so I am betting them on the ML at bet365 Sportsbook.

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Bowing Green comes in from a dominant defensive performance in a 27-6 win against Kent State.

BGSU raced out to a 20-6 halftime lead, and the defense never let up in the second half. The Falcon defense forced three punts and two turnovers while holding Kent State to only 41 second-half yards.

Bowling Green quarterback Connor Bazelak returned from injury to complete 23-of-27 passes for 313 yards and two touchdowns.

Harold Fannin Jr. continues to impress, leading all tight ends in receiving yards (873). He’s a matchup nightmare in the MAC.

The Falcons’ defense has been rock solid in conference play and should make life difficult for the Toledo offense this week.

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Toledo comes in from a close 13-6 win on the road against Northern Illinois.

Quarterback Tucker Gleason missed the game with an undisclosed injury, and his availability for this week is uncertain.

Toledo struggled to move the ball against Northern Illinois’ defense, with quarterback John Alan Richter completing only 15 of his 28 passes for 152 yards. The Rockets ran the ball 37 times and managed only one explosive rush.

Toledo’s defense suffocated the Huskies’ ground game, limiting them to just 3.9 yards per carry and zero explosive rushes.

Toledo’s pass defense was prominent in the second half, helping to hold Northern Illinois scoreless.

The injury report will be key to watch for Toledo this week, as the status of Gleason is still up in the air.

Bowling Green vs Toledo Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Toledo match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 87 29
Line Yards 59 63
Pass Success 36 75
Havoc 116 34
Finishing Drives 83 65
Quality Drives 43 30
Toledo Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 115 66
Line Yards 99 127
Pass Success 50 13
Havoc 48 114
Finishing Drives 93 44
Quality Drives 99 79
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 45 50
PFF Coverage 61 13
Special Teams SP+ 73 85
Middle 8 31 37
Seconds per Play 29.8 (121) 24.7 (21)
Rush Rate 52% (89) 52% (80)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Bowling Green vs Toledo Pick & Prediction

I’m betting the Falcons pull off the upset. Bowling Green has played better teams and looked like a better team.

The defense has trended up in conference play, holding MAC opponents to 267 yards and 14.7 points per game. I don’t expect Toledo’s ground attack to get going against the Falcons’ stout front seven.

Bowling Green’s pass rush looks great, as the Falcons already have 19 sacks.

Toledo’s offensive line is slumping, allowing six sacks over the past two weeks. Buffalo and Northern Illinois pushed the Rockets’ offensive linemen around, and I expect Bowling Green to do the same.

Toledo has struggled on third down (37% conversion), while Bowling Green’s defense has excelled (30% conversion rate allowed). With an unreliable rushing attack and inadequate passing downs offense, I foresee more than a few empty possessions for the Rockets.

Bowling Green’s offense also matches up well with Toledo’s defense. The Rockets struggle to defend the pass, ranking 93rd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed — I don’t know how they’ll stop Fannin.

I trust Bowling Green to get the job done here.

Pick: Bowling Green ML (+115, bet365)

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Bowling Green vs Toledo Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch

Location: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Date: Saturday, Oct. 26
Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN+

Bowling Green vs Toledo will be played at the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio, on Saturday, Oct. 26 at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.

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Bowling Green vs Toledo Weather

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Joshua Nunn

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