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bowling green falcons vs ball state cardinals-prediction-pick-odds-college football-november 23

Bowling Green vs Ball State Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, Nov. 23

The Bowling Green Falcons (6-4, 5-1 MAC) travel to take on the Ball State Cardinals (3-7, 2-4) on Saturday, Nov. 23. This game kicks off at 2 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN+.

Ball State recently fired head coach Mike Neu after 4 straight losing seasons, as he couldn’t carry over the momentum of a MAC Championship during the 2020 COVID season.

Bowling Green, meanwhile, secured bowl eligibility last week and continues with aspirations of winning the MAC Championship. The Falcons are seeking a win here to set up a massive home game against Miami (OH) on Black Friday.

Bowling Green comes in as a -10.5 favorite with the total set at 57.5. So, where does the betting value lie?

Let’s dive into my Bowling Green vs. Ball State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

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  • Bowling Green vs. Ball State Pick: Bowling Green -10.5

My Ball State vs. Bowling Green best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Bowling Green vs Ball State Odds

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  • Bowling Green vs Ball State Spread: Bowling Green -11 (-110) · Ball State +11 (-110)
  • Bowling Green vs Ball State Over/Under: 57 Points
  • Bowling Green vs Ball State Moneyline: Bowling Green -425 · Ball State +325

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Bowling Green vs Ball State Preview” center=”true” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/bgn.png” logo2url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/ball.png”][/subheader]
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Bowling Green defeated Western Michigan last week in convincing fashion, effectively ending the Broncos’ bid to get back to Detroit. The Falcons faced an early 7-3 deficit but completely controlled the second and third quarters while going on a 28-0 run.

Western Michigan scored late in the third quarter but never seriously threatened again.

The Falcons have no breathing room atop the MAC standings and really need to win this game in order to remain in control of their own destiny in the conference race.

I would expect the Falcons to be in favorable downs and distances most of the afternoon here, as the Cardinals are just 125th in Success Rate allowed and 124th in Defensive Explosiveness allowed.

Bowling Green should see success in early downs, and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. — a matchup nightmare — should find space downfield and over the middle to extend drives on third down.

Ball State has been especially bad on third down this season, allowing conversions on 48% of third-down attempts while ranking just 121st nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives.

It’s hard to expect this Ball State defense to secure stops in the red zone, as 35-of-37 trips have resulted in points with 27 of those ending in touchdowns.

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Ball State lost a heartbreaker last week against Buffalo in a game that was pure MACtion.

The Cardinals saw a 14-point fourth-quarter lead with six minutes remaining completely evaporate, as the defense couldn’t hold on two Buffalo touchdown drives. The Bulls then converted a two-point attempt to tie the game at 45.

In overtime, Ball State settled for a field goal, and the Bulls punched it in for six points two plays later.

The game was a microcosm of the season for Ball State, as its offense has played much better than expected this year, while the defense hasn’t secured stops in key moments most of the season.

This will be a tough task this week going against a BG stop unit that has been near the top of the MAC all year.

The defense concerns me in this matchup with Bowling Green, which should control the line of scrimmage and gash Ball State on the ground.

The Cardinals struggle to stop the run and rank just 121st nationally in Defensive EPA Per Rush and 122nd in Rush Success Rate allowed. They’re giving up 5.4 yards per carry and have yielded more than 200 yards rushing on five occasions.

Bowling Green has averaged 207 yards per game on the ground the last three weeks and ranks 10th nationally in Offensive EPA Per Rush.

Bowling Green vs Ball State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Ball State match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Ball State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 85 114
Line Yards 56 112
Pass Success 29 129
Havoc 103 100
Finishing Drives 82 133
Quality Drives 15 133
Ball State Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 55 51
Line Yards 66 121
Pass Success 62 11
Havoc 84 93
Finishing Drives 45 47
Quality Drives 73 56
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 21 110
PFF Coverage 48 125
Special Teams SP+ 51 86
Middle 8 30 132
Seconds per Play 30.0 (124) 28.1 (95)
Rush Rate 53% (75) 47% (112)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The Bowling Green defense has been one of the premier units in the MAC and has played consistently all season long. It’s not going to participate in a track meet with a Ball State team that has feasted on the weaker MAC defenses this year.

With that said, I’m going to lay it here with the Falcons.

Defensively, Bowling Green doesn’t provide a ton of pressure, but we could see the Falcons force the issue a bit against a Ball State offensive line that has allowed 25 sacks and 62 tackles for loss.

Quarterback Kadin Semonza has been asked to put a lot on his shoulders and will frequently scramble to extend broken plays. This has resulted in scrambles back to the line of scrimmage, sacks and throw-aways.

In fact, for all the success the Cardinal offense has had this year against weaker MAC defenses, they still rank just 128th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 131st in EPA Per Play.

Relying on explosives alone is not a recipe for success against a BG defense that plays sound football and has an above-average coverage unit.

This game is important for BG, as the Falcons need a win to keep pace atop the MAC standings and set up a showdown with a spot in the MAC title game on the line against Miami (OH) next week.

Bowling Green is too good to stumble here, and after Ball State blew a 14-point lead with three minutes to go against Buffalo last week, I don’t know where the Cardinals’ heads are at.

Pick: Bowling Green -10.5

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[subheader sizedown=”true” text=”Bowling Green vs Ball State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch” center=”true”][/subheader]

Location: Scheumann Stadium, Muncie, IN
Date: Saturday, Nov. 23
Kickoff Time: 2 p.m. ET
TV / Streaming: ESPN+

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