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boise state broncos vs san diego state aztecs-odds-predictions-picks-ncaaf-betting guide-september 22

Boise State vs San Diego State Odds, Prediction, Picks | Friday Night NCAAF Betting Guide

Boise State vs San Diego State Odds

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The Mountian West conference schedule has concluded with a conference championship game since 2013. If history is any indication, this clash between Boise State and San Diego State from Snapdragon Stadium will have a heavy hand in determining a conference favorite.

Either the Broncos or the Aztecs have secured a spot in the championship game every season since the inaugural title game.

Boise State had a rough start to the season against stout nonconference competition. The Broncos fell by a boatload of points in the opener to Washington, only to succumb in a nail-biter when hosting UCF.

Both sides of the ball have struggled to meet preseason expectations just as the Broncos have started to pack a travel bag. Boise State will play at home on the Smurf Turf just twice between now and November.

San Diego State will be playing its fifth consecutive game after starting the season with a victory over Ohio in Week 0. The Aztecs have lost two straight to Pac-12 competition — a blowout against UCLA and a covering effort against Oregon State.

SDSU will play this game and then host Air Force next week to finish half of its schedule before the month of October.

With both teams desperate for a victory after a tough stretch of nonconference games, the winner in Week 4 will have the inside track to the Mountain West Championship game.

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Head coach Andy Avalos has a resume full of successful stops as a defense assistant and coordinator. That aspect has not translated to the field over the past two seasons at Boise State. The Broncos have shown continued struggles in creating Havoc, primarily generating a pass rush and posting tackles for loss.

Fundamentals have been loose to this point, as safety Seyi Oladipo and linebacker Marco Notarainni lead the team in tackles while also posting seven combined missed tackles.

The struggles for the Broncos are not limited to the defensive side of the football, as the Boise State offense ranks near dead last in Passing Success Rate.

Quarterback Taylen Green leads a new scheme under coordinator Bush Hamdan. The third-year quarterback has been inconsistent, posting four interceptions on 89 passing attempts after posting only six interceptions in all of 2022.

By design, Green hasn’t left the pocket much with only two designed rushing attempts versus six scrambles on the season.

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Head coach Brady Hoke entered Mountain West Conference media day worried about the experience and depth in the trench in 2023. Those worries have turned into subpar results, as the Aztecs rank dead last in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.

Defensive interior players Tupu Alualu and Darrion Dalton were lit up against Oregon State, failing to record a pressure with just a trio of tackles against the stout Beavers rushing attack.

Coverage has been strong for San Diego State, particularly at the cornerback position with eight combined pass breakups from Dezjhon Malone and Noah Tumblin.

Once a heavy rushing attack with multiple running backs, the Aztecs offense has transformed into a scrambling clinic under quarterback Jalen Mayden.

The former defensive back has been given the green light by offensive coordinator Ryan Lindley to tuck the ball and run in any down and distance. While Mayden continues to struggle with turnovers in passing attempts, the senior has eight explosive runs and leads the team in rushing yards.

Listed at 6-foot-3 and 220 pounds, the quarterback averages a bulldozing 3.5 yards after contact and is the best source of scoring for San Diego State.

 

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and San Diego State match up statistically:

Boise State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 27 133
Line Yards 40 130
Pass Success 121 82
Havoc 72 82
Finishing Drives 73 58
Quality Drives 93 89
San Diego State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 59 125
Line Yards 53 99
Pass Success 80 109
Havoc 113 114
Finishing Drives 114 113
Quality Drives 111 115
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 67 121
PFF Coverage 76 61
Special Teams SP+ 21 118
Middle 8 18 86
Seconds per Play 26.0 (52) 29.7 (107)
Rush Rate 48.8% (104) 55.1% (67)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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There are two primary handicaps when it comes to a showdown between two dominant Mountain West programs.

Boise State will look to create explosives while keeping Green in the pocket, but San Diego State will ask Mayden to take off and run from the pocket on every offensive possession.

These two teams have played a similar strength of record and strength of schedule to this point, each posting similar defensive numbers against the rush.

Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty had issues holding onto the rock against North Dakota in Week 3, recording two fumbles after posting just one in 156 rushing attempts last season.

The numbers are down across the board for Jeanty, who’s been limited on explosive runs. His yards-after-contact number has dropped a full yard from 2022.

Despite the issues in the running game, Boise State ranks 22nd in offensive momentum killer rate, which measures drive-killing events such as penalties and turnovers.

The San Diego State offense has been much more chaotic, ranking 113th in Havoc Allowed and 116th in offensive momentum killer. Scoring opportunities have not been fruitful, as the Aztecs have averaged just three points on 22 drives that extend past the opponent’s 40-yard line.

The Boise State defense has been susceptible to allowing big plays on the ground, but San Diego State’s rank of 109th in rushing EPA will limit the number of scores from explosives.

The Action Network power ratings indicate all the value on the spread resides on the Boise State side.

There’s a large discrepancy in favor of the Aztecs in terms of special teams, Middle 8 scoring, penalties and third-down conversions. But ultimately, while both quarterbacks are complete wild cards in passing downs, the Broncos’ ability to establish a ground game with a higher ranking in Line Yards and Stuff Rate gives the visiting team the advantage.

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