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Boise State vs Colorado State Prediction & Pick: Expect Points Galore

Boise State vs Colorado State Prediction & Pick

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One of the final games of Week 7 takes us to Fort Collins, Colorado, where the Colorado State Rams host the Boise State Broncos in a late-night Mountain West showdown.

This will be a big game for both teams as they try to build some momentum entering the second half of the season.

Both teams each already have three losses on their record and a fourth defeat would really limit each team’s final goals, so there’s a lot on the line in this matchup.

Read on for my Boise State vs Colorado State P16rediction & Pick.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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This Boise State team is nowhere near as dominant as the Broncos teams from the last 20 years. At 3-3, it lost all three of its marquee non-conference games (Washington, UCF and Memphis) and the defense has left a lot to be desired.

I can forgive allowing 56 points to Washington, but giving up 31 to San Diego State, 35 to Memphis and 27 at home to San Jose State is not going to cut it if Boise State wants to be a true Mountain West contender.

The Broncos’ defense is 108th or worse in every relevant defensive metric on Action Analytics and is all the way down at 124th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.

All in all, BSU is giving up a ghastly 432.8 yards per game.

Quarterback Taylen Green has been decent (five TDs and four INTs), but he hasn’t fully taken the next step after his impressive freshman campaign. The Broncos have eased his workload a bit in the last two games by having Maddux Madsen rotate in at QB, so that’s an interesting wrinkle to watch for in this game.

Boise State does have one bonafide star in running back Ashton Jeanty. He’s eighth in the country with 656 rushing yards, and his eight rushing touchdowns are tied for third-best in the FBS.

Expect to see a lot of him in this one.

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Colorado State enters this game with a 2-3 record after losing 44-24 at Utah State last weekend.

The Rams have actually been pretty good on offense, despite their record, since they score 31 points per game.

Not only that, CSU is fourth in the country with 352.2 passing yards per game. Granted, some of those yards undoubtedly came in garbage time, but it does show that the Rams can effectively move the ball down the field on a consistent basis.

Colorado State redshirt freshman quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has added an extra dimension to this offense. He’s thrown for at least 320 yards in three of his four starts so far, and in those games, the Rams have scored at least 31 points.

Fowler-Nicolosi still has a huge learning curve because he has 10 interceptions compared to 11 touchdown passes, but it’s clear the offense functions better with him under center.

Defensively, CSU is allowing 36 points per game, good for fifth-worst in the country. There are some positives for this defense — like ranking 59th in Rushing Success Allowed and Mohamed Kamara leading the nation with 9.5 sacks — but Boise State should still be able to move the ball well against it.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and Colorado State match up statistically:

Boise State Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 13 59
Line Yards 23 65
Pass Success 81 94
Havoc 55 59
Finishing Drives 63 51
Quality Drives 77 102
Colorado State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 128 124
Line Yards 133 108
Pass Success 28 118
Havoc 78 108
Finishing Drives 76 118
Quality Drives 119 108
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 124 56
PFF Coverage 119 72
Special Teams SP+ 83 51
Middle 8 38 133
Seconds per Play 26.4 (59) 22.7 (7)
Rush Rate 53.2% (63) 36.9% (129)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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The one thing that stuck out to me while I was writing this article is how bad these teams’ defenses have been this season. It’s not often that both teams give up more than 30 points per game, and for that reason, I like the over of 60.5 points.

These teams will be able to move the ball, and the winner will probably need to get to 35 points.

Moreover, Fowler-Nicolosi’s interception issue could help inflate this game’s score by giving Boise State short fields to work with.

Anticipate some offensive fireworks in Fort Collins and take the over of 60.5 points.

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Mark Harris

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