College football moneyline picks mark the intersection of plus-money bets and shocking upsets. Does it get any better?
Hint: It does.
Our PRO Systems feature a unique college football model, which specifically targets upset picks. That same model highlighted multiple college football Week 1 predictions in which locking in the underdog to win outright is an attractive bet Saturday.
The best college football upset picks for Week 1 from our premium PRO System account for key info: spread range, where the over/under‘s at and more.
There’s no better time to exploit the trend than earlier in the season, when strengths of teams are lesser-known.
These are the top betting choices to pull off an upset in college football Week 1 — backed by nothing but foolproof data.
Best Upset Picks: College Football Week 1 Predictions
It’s time to reveal a little secret as to when you should target upsets in college football.
When a road team is +4 or shorter against the spread and the over/under is 46 or higher, there’s value in betting the underdog to win outright. In projected high-scoring games, there’s more variance, increasing the edge on taking moneyline underdogs.
Introducing our PRO System “Small Visiting Dogs,” which owns a stellar 51% win rate on all picks at great prices! The general break-even rate in sports betting, assuming all picks are made at -110, is roughly 52.3%.
Small Visiting Dogs has nailed 51% of upset picks lifetime, but consistent predictions at plus-money produces excellent results in the long haul.
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At the time of writing, two sides check the boxes for college football Week 1: Eastern Michigan to upset UMass, and UNLV to get the best of Houston.
Eastern Michigan vs. UMass Moneyline Pick
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In a toss-up game, the value is on Eastern Michigan to pull off the upset.
The model also does not account for teams ranked inside the AP Top 25 — something Eastern Michigan and UMass won’t have to worry about!
PRO System Pick: Eastern Michigan
UNLV vs. Houston Moneyline Pick
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Willie Fritz is taking over a new Houston team with a volatile quarterback in Donovan Smith. The Rebels could be a primed for an upset as a short ‘dog.
PRO System Pick: UNLV
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Our PRO signals flag far more great picks than our staff could author each day — that’s where Action AI comes in. Using generative AI, signals that hit a high grade threshold are written up into articles that are then vetted and edited by a human to help us get you all the sharp action. Read more about how it works here.