A subtle element in the forecast leads us to the best Arizona vs. TCU pick to make Saturday of Week 13. The 6-4 Horned Frogs host the 4-6 Wildcats for an afternoon Big 12 clash.
Despite mediocre records, Saturday’s Arizona vs. TCU clash boasts plenty of potential for fun.
Arizona comes into this game with a record of 4-6, while TCU is slightly better at 6-4. Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is a key player for the visiting Wildcats.
On the home side, TCU quarterback Josh Hoover is the star to watch.
TCU is an 11.5-point favorite with a 59.5-point over/under.
Let’s examine the odds and teams more closely to see why the over/under is the best bet for Saturday of Week 13. My Arizona vs. TCU predictions and college football picks are below.
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- Arizona vs. TCU Pick: Under 59.5
My Arizona vs. TCU best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Arizona vs TCU Odds, Betting Lines
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- Arizona vs TCU Spread: Arizona +10.5 · TCU -10.5
- Arizona vs TCU Over/Under: 59.5 Points
- Arizona vs TCU Moneyline: Arizona ML +325 · TCU ML -425
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Arizona Wildcats Betting Preview: All Hype
Arizona was last year’s Pac-12 surprise.
This season, the Wildcats are one of the biggest duds for bettors, and it started right out of the gates.
Arizona kicked off the season 0-3 against the spread. After upsetting Utah as a touchdown underdog to finally cover a game, Brent Brennan’s Wildcats ripped off five straight losses against the spread. They enter Week 13 coming off just their second cover — a win against Houston.
A 2-8 record against the spread and a 4-6 over/under record immediately illuminate the offense — or lack thereof. McMillan and the Wildcats were among the most potent pass attacks last season. They’ve struggled to muster anything close to their 2023 production, failing to score more than 27 points in nine straight games.
Quarterback Noah Fifita leads an offense in the bottom 20 nationally in Rush Success and Line Yards.
Defensively, Arizona’s been average across the board, though the Wildcats can often get to the quarterback, posting a decent clip in Havoc.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Mixed Bag
Which TCU team shows up in Week 13? The Horned Frogs are tough to read. TCU has lost three games as a favorite, including a double-digit loss as a 16-point chalk.
However, the Horned Frogs have also pulled off two outright upsets.
Regarding the over/under, the Horned Frogs have been streaky, overall 6-4 to the over.
Hoover leads an offense that ranks sixth nationally in Pass Success Rate. When the Horned Frogs get into the red area, they flourish, ranking in the top 20 in Finishing Drives.
TCU will own the edge in coverage and tackling, grading out significantly better than Arizona.
Arizona vs TCU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and TCU match up statistically:
Arizona Offense vs. TCU Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 115 | 94 |
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| Line Yards | 122 | 108 |
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| Pass Success | 92 | 53 |
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| Havoc | 92 | 109 |
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| Finishing Drives | 94 | 86 |
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| Quality Drives | 86 | 83 |
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TCU Offense vs. Arizona Defense
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Offense
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Defense
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Edge
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| Rush Success | 61 | 62 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Line Yards | 94 | 94 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Pass Success | 6 | 78 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”TCU” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tcud.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Havoc | 39 | 72 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”TCU” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tcud.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Finishing Drives | 19 | 113 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”TCU” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tcud.png”][/teamlogo]
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| Quality Drives | 90 | 94 |
[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”Draw” logo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/08/Minus.png”][/teamlogo]
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Pace of Play / Other
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[teamlogo linktoteampage=”false” league=”ncaaf” fullname=”TCU Horned Frogs” logo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/tcud.png”][/teamlogo]
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| PFF Tackling | 124 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 30 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 15 | 121 |
| Middle 8 | 91 | 39 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (88) | 24.8 (21) |
| Rush Rate | 44% (121) | 43% (117) |
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The Windy Unders PRO System, available to subscribers, shows that games with certain wind speeds stay under 56.6% of the time.
It’s also one of the most reliable and longest-standing models in Action Labs.
The Arizona vs. TCU game has been popping up in those parameters, as the game may have subtle yet important gusts.
If we remove the New Mexico game in Week 1 — because New Mexico’s defense is a joke — Arizona’s offense still hasn’t scored more than 27 points. Wind certainly won’t help.
The under is a recommended pick down to a key number of 59.
Pick: Under 59.5
Arizona vs TCU Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Arizona vs TCU will be played at Amon G. Carter Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 3 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.
Arizona vs TCU Betting Trends
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Arizona vs TCU Weather
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