Action Network

app state vs troy-odds-pick-2023-sun belt championship-betting preview-dec 2

App State vs Troy Odds & Pick | 2023 Sun Belt Championship Betting Preview

App State vs Troy Odds

[gamematchup league=”NCAAF” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Troy-Trojans-Logo-100.png” awayname=”Troy” awayslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/troy-trojans” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” homename=”Appalachian State” homeslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/appalachian-state-mountaineers” date=”Saturday, Dec. 2″ time=”4 p.m. ET” network=”ABC” col1text=”Spread” col2text=”Total” col3text=”Moneyline” col1awayText=”+5.5″ col1awayLine=”-110″ col1homeText=”-5.5″ col1homeLine=”-110″ col2awayText=”53.5″ col2homeText=”53.5″ col2awayLine=”-105o / -115u” col2homeLine=”-105o / -115u” col3awayText=”+180″ col3homeText=”-225″ col3awayLine=”” col3homeLine=”” bookname=”BetMGM” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/902516_MGM2.png” bookreviewslug=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/online-sports-betting/reviews/betmgm”][/gamematchup]

Let’s dive into the App State vs. Troy odds and make a pick in our 2023 Sun Belt Championship betting preview on Saturday, Dec. 2.

Troy hosts Appalachian State on Saturday afternoon for the Sun Belt Conference Championship at Veterans Memorial Stadium.

The Trojans finished with the best record in the conference after rattling off nine straight wins to close out the regular season on their way to a 10-2 overall mark.

The Mountaineers also finished the regular season strongly, winning their last five to earn a bid in the Sun Belt title game for the fourth time in the game’s six years of existence.

This is the rematch of last season’s matchup that ended on a Hail Mary touchdown with College GameDay in attendance. I expect another great battle between two of the country’s hottest teams.

_InlineAdBlock

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”App State Mountaineers” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/appalachian-state-mountaineers” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

After consecutive losses to Coastal Carolina and Old Dominion, many wrote off App State in the Sun Belt.

However, head coach Shawn Clark and his squad turned it all around.

The Mountaineers have been dominant. Since the third quarter of the Southern Miss game on Oct. 28, they’ve outscored their opponents, 174-80 — and their four full games were against bowl-eligible teams.

App State’s most significant adjustment was using its “Star” defensive package more. Before the switch, Clark’s defense allowed 30.9 points per game. After, it allowed only 18.3.

On offense, the star performer is quarterback Joey Aguilar, who leads the Sun Belt and all Group of Five programs with 33 touchdown passes. The only FBS quarterbacks with more this season are LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Oregon’s Bo Nix.

[subheader sizedown=”false” center=”false” text=”Troy Trojans” subtext=”” logo1url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Troy-Trojans-Logo-100.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/troy-trojans” link1follow=”false”][/subheader]

Troy head coach Jon Sumrall is no stranger to winning, owning a 22-4 record over his two seasons with the program.

The Trojans go about it differently than the Mountaineers, relying on the ground game and a strong defense.

The defense has held eight opponents this season to fewer than 300 yards of total offense, ranking third nationally. They also love to pressure the quarterback, racking up 20 sacks over the last three games, the nation’s most during the stretch.

Meanwhile, quarterback Gunnar Watson and running back Kimani Vidal lead the offense. They’re just the third Troy duo to pass for 3,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards, respectively, in a season in program history.

Vidal holds all three school records for rushing yards — the single-season, single-game and career marks. He’ll need another big game in the Sun Belt Championship if the Trojans want to go back-to-back.

[appcard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/509930_NCAAFArticleCard.png” cta=”The must-have app for college football bettors” firstupsell=”The best NCAAF betting scoreboard” secondupsell=”Free picks from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Live win probabilities for your bets” buttontext=”DOWNLOAD NOW” buttonurl=”https://action.onelink.me/qhpb/4fb1273b”][/appcard]

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Appalachian State vs Troy” subtext=”Matchup Analysis” center=”false” logo1url=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaaf/100/app.png” link1=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/appalachian-state-mountaineers” link1follow=”false” logo2url=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Troy-Trojans-Logo-100.png” link2=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/ncaaf/odds/troy-trojans” link2follow=”false”][/subheader]

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Appalachian State and Troy match up statistically:

Appalachian State Offense vs Troy Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 77 20
Line Yards 35 19
Pass Success 13 13
Havoc 22 40
Finishing Drives 60 9
Quality Drives 22 10
Troy Offense vs Appalachian State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 108 93
Line Yards 84 121
Pass Success 70 46
Havoc 105 80
Finishing Drives 80 13
Quality Drives 39 48
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 45 17
PFF Coverage 24 25
Special Teams SP+ 7.1 9
Middle 8 8 8
Seconds per Play 25.7 (38) 27.8 (85)
Rush Rate 53.0% (63) 51.9% (88)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Appalachian State vs Troy” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

If you’re looking at full-season metrics, this line would seem correct. But you have to factor in Appalachian State’s recent improvements.

So, my best bet is to back App State and take the points at +4.5 or better.

The key to the game is whether or not the Mountaineers’ offensive line can give Aguilar enough time to carve up the Troy secondary.

I think they can do just that.

Most of the Trojans’ defensive Havoc comes from the front seven, but App State ranks in the top 10 among the Group of Five in Havoc Allowed against opposing defensive lines.

Yes, Troy’s numbers against the pass are excellent. However, this unit hasn’t faced many competent passing attacks.

Texas State was an opposing offense that could throw the ball, and it outgained and finished with more first downs than the Trojans in their matchup. The Bobcats finished with a -4 in turnover margin to cause that loss.

Six is too many points. I bet the ‘Neers will keep it close in the Sun Belt Championship game.

Pick: Appalachian State +6 (Play to +4.5)

The new ESPN Sportsbook is now online and you can use Action’s ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS for a new user welcome.

[procard imageurl=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/579047_procard.png” cta=”The betting tools used by the pros” firstupsell=”Best bets & signals for every game” secondupsell=”Projections from proven pros” thirdupsell=”Profitable betting system picks” buttontext=”TRY FOR FREE” buttonurl=”https://www.actionnetwork.com/pricing?intcmp=ArticleProCard&intcid=602644432″][/procard]

Posted

in

by

Brett Pund

Tags:

, , ,