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Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds, Picks & Prediction | Roll Tide Roll?

Alabama vs Mississippi State Odds

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The cowbells will be clanging in Starkville when the No. 12 Alabama Crimson Tide face the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

Unlike almost every recent matchup in this series, Alabama appears to be mortal. But will Mississippi State be able to take advantage?

The sports betting markets don’t think so because they have Alabama favored by 14.5 points, but the Crimson Tide have won each of their past two games by exactly 14 points. So, if that holds, the Bulldogs would eke out a cover.

Let’s dive into the odds for Alabama vs. Mississippi State and make a pick in our betting preview for this late-night SEC showdown on Saturday, Sept. 30.

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After a 10-point home loss to Texas in Week 2, Alabama has bounced back with two straight wins. While its 17-3 road win over South Florida wasn’t pretty, Alabama righted the ship last Saturday by beating No. 20 Ole Miss, 24-10.

Jalen Milroe played one of the better games of his young career against the Rebels, as he completed 17-of-21 passes for 225 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He also connected with 1o different receivers.

He did that despite being held to 28 yards rushing, so it was nice to see him remain effective while his rushing was mitigated.

Even with Milroe’s performance last game, Alabama’s passing attack is still a huge work in progress. However, it’s covered up some of its deficiencies with a strong running game. The Crimson Tide rank 47th in Rushing Success Rate as top running backs Jase McClellan and Roydell Williams both average a bit over five yards per carry.

On defense, the Crimson Tide are still a force to be reckoned with.

They rank 10th in Defensive Success Rate (22nd rushing, 41st passing), and they have given up just 20 combined points in the three games other than Texas.

Alabama’s defense played its best game of the season last weekend against Ole Miss, forcing four punts and limiting the Rebels to 1.9 yards per carry.

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Through four games, it’s hard to get a good read on Mississippi State.

It needed five turnovers to beat Arizona in overtime, got shellacked by LSU and then hung tough in Columbia last weekend until South Carolina pulled away.

Long story short, the Bulldogs are just a very average college football team, so it should be no surprise that they’re off to a 2-2 start.

Mississippi State does have one thing many teams would take in a heartbeat: a good quarterback with experience.

Will Rogers is in his fourth year starting for the Bulldogs, and although they no longer run the Air Raid, Rogers has still performed well with 979 yards and six touchdowns.

Half of his touchdowns have gone to Lideatrick Griffin, who leads the team with 388 receiving yards.

The Bulldogs are a bottom-half defense in basically every advanced metric. They’re allowing an average of 389 yards per game in SEC play, and Arizona certainly would have scored more if it didn’t commit so many turnovers.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Mississippi State match up statistically:

Alabama Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 47 83
Line Yards 32 62
Pass Success 93 126
Havoc 110 76
Finishing Drives 27 133
Quality Drives 59 100
Mississippi State Offense vs. Alabama Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 81 22
Line Yards 56 47
Pass Success 103 41
Havoc 79 32
Finishing Drives 67 34
Quality Drives 36 18
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 6 30
PFF Coverage 1 20
Special Teams SP+ 20 18
Middle 8 3 75
Seconds per Play 28.1 (86) 26.5 (64)
Rush Rate 63.0% (29) 49.8% (94)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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This feels like a game in which Alabama will remind everyone why it’s such a great program. The Crimson Tide should be able to successfully run the ball against Mississippi State, which will lead to easier throws and decisions for Milroe.

I also keep coming back to the fact that the Crimson Tide have played strong defense in all but one game, and they aren’t playing Texas tonight. Nick Saban knows Griffin is a legitimate deep threat, so expect Alabama to keep its safeties back and force Rogers to beat it on a down-to-down basis.

Even though this isn’t the best Crimson Tide team in recent memory, it still has the defensive prowess and run game to take care of business and cover in Starkville.

[quickslip picktext=”Pick: Alabama -14.5 (Play to -15)” linktext=”Bet the Crimson Tide Instantly at FanDuel With QuickSlip!” link=”https://switchboard.actionnetwork.com/v1/deeplink?marketId=42.397571105&selectionId=1010531&context=qs-articles” linkfollow=”false” bookthumbnaillogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/392973_FanDuel.png”][/quickslip]_InlineAdBlockRestart

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