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alabama crimson tide vs kentucky wildcats-odds-prediction-pick-college football-betting preview-november 11-jalen milroe

College Football Predictions, Odds | Alabama vs Kentucky Football Betting Preview

Alabama vs Kentucky Odds

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The Kentucky Wildcats host the Alabama Crimson Tide in an SEC showdown in Lexington, Kentucky, on Saturday.

Alabama’s not going away anytime soon. The Crimson Tide showed up in front of their home crowd and dominated LSU last week, 42-28. It’s clear they’re starting to regain their mojo, something many thought was lost early in the season.

Meanwhile, the Wildcats finally crashed back to Earth. After starting the season 5-0, they lost three straight to conference opponents before snagging a win last week against Mississippi State, 24-3. The red-hot Tide will be a big test for Kentucky.

It’s time to take a look at the college football odds for Alabama vs. Kentucky and find a pick in this college football betting preview for Saturday, Nov. 11.

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Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Jalen Milroe has played like a Heisman quarterback as the season has progressed. Will he be nominated? Probably not. Still, his play has been exceptional.

We saw Milroe do what he does best last week: run the rock. He amassed 155 rushing yards and four scores, the latter being a program record.

The deep ball wasn’t quite there last week, but Milroe figured it out. He’s completed 65% of his passes and limited his turnovers since the Texas game in Week 2.

Aside from that, Alabama has the most explosive passing offense in the country and ranks 39th in Passing Success Rate.

Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond have been Milroe’s favorite targets, making up most of Bama’s aerial scores. Burton wasn’t excellent against LSU, but Bond was, and I expect both of them to get several targets against Kentucky’s lackluster pass defense.

Aside from Milroe’s dynamic game on the ground last week, I’ve been somewhat disappointed by the run game. They try to run the ball a lot but rank only 62nd in Rush Success Rate without much Explosiveness.

Jase McClellan has been a solid back, but he’s not the traditional dynamic back we’ve seen out of Bama the past few years. Roydell Williams can also pound the rock, but he isn’t all that dynamic either.

Defensively, the Tide keep improving. They’re now 48th nationally in Havoc generated and ninth in Success Rate allowed. After a rough showing in the first half against LSU, they allowed a touchdown on the first drive of the second half and then clamped the Tigers for the rest of the game.

True freshman safety Caleb Downs is a joy to watch, leading the team in total tackles and interceptions.

But the front is what opposing quarterbacks need to watch for. Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell are both monsters at the point of attack, combining for 14.5 sacks and 20.5 tackles-for-loss.

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Senior quarterback Devin Leary has been a welcoming sight for Wildcat fans, and last week was no different. He’s thrown for almost 2,000 yards with 18 passing touchdowns and hasn’t committed a turnover in his past two games.

Unfortunately, Leary’s efficiency hasn’t always been there. His 57% completion rate should be higher, and Kentucky is only 92nd in Passing Success Rate.

Leary’s weapons are solid. I really like Tayvion Robinson, who finally broke out last week. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another one from Robinson real soon.

Ray Davis is among the nation’s best running backs. But he’s Kentucky’s only good back.

Despite Davis’ efficiency (six yards per carry and nine touchdowns), the lack of a committee has resulted in Kentucky ranking 75th in Rush Success Rate.

The Wildcats don’t trust their other backfield options. JuThan McClain is the second lead back and has 122 fewer carries than Davis.

The defense is an interesting subject, but the Wildcats hold their own against the run.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Alabama and Kentucky match up statistically:

Alabama Offense vs Kentucky Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 62 34
Line Yards 26 35
Pass Success 53 38
Havoc 126 68
Finishing Drives 33 55
Quality Drives 67 74
Kentucky Offense vs Alabama Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 75 16
Line Yards 97 85
Pass Success 77 20
Havoc 62 33
Finishing Drives 42 60
Quality Drives 70 25
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 8 77
PFF Coverage 3 56
Special Teams SP+ 9 66
Middle 8 26 87
Seconds per Play 29.2 (103) 30.5 (129)
Rush Rate 63.7% (18) 48.0% (104)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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Kentucky has played weak against the SEC elite. It fell hard to Georgia and Missouri before dropping a game to Tennessee two weeks ago.

I suspect the Wildcats will suffer the same fate against Alabama. Bama, meanwhile, keeps getting better.

It beat Tennessee by 14, went on a bye, and then handily defeated LSU. Milroe unlocking his run game is enormous for Alabama.

I see the Tide coming out on top by a big margin. They’re starting to separate themselves from the pack, and with Kentucky’s resume against the SEC elites, Alabama should see even more separation.

Pick: Alabama -10.5 (Play to -14)

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