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akron zips vs ohio bobcats-prediction-pick-odds-ncaaf-saturday sept 28

Akron vs Ohio Predictions, Picks, Odds, How to Watch for College Football Saturday

The Akron Zips (1-3) travel to Athens, Ohio, to battle the Ohio Bobcats (2-2) on Saturday, September 28. The game can be seen live on ESPN+ and kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET.

The Zips are coming off a beatdown of a loss at the hands of South Carolina, while the Bobcats suffered a similar defeat to Kentucky.

Ohio is listed as a 12.5-point favorite in the contest and the over/under is set at 46.

My Akron vs Ohio prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 28 are below.

Akron vs Ohio Odds, Spread, Pick

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  • Akron vs Ohio spread: Ohio -8.5
  • Akron vs Ohio over/under: 47 points
  • Akron vs Ohio moneyline: Ohio -325
  • Akron vs Ohio pick: Ohio Team Total Under 30.5

My Ohio vs Akron best bet is on the Bobcats team total under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

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Akron Football

Akron is coming off of a 50-7 loss to South Carolina that capped off a brutal non-conference schedule that also featured road trips to Ohio State and Rutgers. Despite three blowout losses, the Zips competed well deep into the third quarter in each matchup.

MAC teams have been up against it in non-conference play all season as they usually are when faced with “buy games.” Typically, the players and coaches are able to reset expectations for conference play and Akron should be no different.

Ohio Football

Ohio is also coming off a blowout loss, this one via the Kentucky Wildcats. Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro missed the game with an upper body injury and Kentucky’s defense swarmed Ohio’s depleted offensive attack.

Ohio struggled after a deflating 12-play drive that resulted in a fumble on the goal line when down 10-0. Backup quarterback Nick Poulos was just 8-for-19 for 110 yards and also threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

The defense has battled a ton of injuries and was down several starters against Kentucky.

Akron vs Ohio Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Akron and Ohio match up statistically:

Akron Offense vs. Ohio Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 74 68
Line Yards 121 50
Pass Success 122 122
Havoc 113 78
Finishing Drives 131 101
Quality Drives 128 114
Ohio Offense vs. Akron Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 61 119
Line Yards 68 107
Pass Success 65 125
Havoc 106 127
Finishing Drives 80 134
Quality Drives 84 130
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 133 109
PFF Coverage 126 102
Special Teams SP+ 54 71
Middle 8 53 89
Seconds per Play 28.1 (78) 29.5 (113)
Rush Rate 45% (123) 61% (37)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

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My best bet in this matchup is the Ohio team total at Under 30.5 (-120 at bet365).

I haven’t been overly impressed with Ohio this season. The Bobcats have struggled to put together a solid offensive explosion and are averaging only 19 points per game. Ohio is just 90th in offensive EPA per play and 94th in finishing drives. We have seen Ohio’s offense need to grind out long, time-consuming scores and they’ve already settled for five field goals in the red zone this year.

The Bobcats also lack explosiveness in the pass game as they are just 133rd in the FBS in that metric.

Despite the defensive metrics reflecting poorly due to significantly stronger competition, I believe Akron will limit explosive plays in this contest. Ohio is going to have to grind out drives, which will result in field goals.

Akron could have some success through the air against an Ohio secondary that has been banged up and is susceptible to being beaten through the air. The Zips frequently use their running backs and tight ends in the passing game and often use short, quick passes to keep themselves on schedule and stay ahead of the chains.

Despite the results against three Power 4 teams that all look like they could be very good, I feel Akron has a pretty underrated MAC defense that will give Ohio problems.

Ohio struggles on third down, converting just 16-of-44 on the season. Meanwhile, Akron has held its past two opponents to just 8-for-28 on third-down conversions. It’s also noteworthy that Akron held Ohio State to its lowest yardage output of the season — by far — and the Buckeyes only had 17 points at the half.

Ohio hasn’t eclipsed 30 points in a game this season and is averaging just 19.0 points per game. The Bobcats are also run heavy as 61% of their offensive plays are on the ground.

There are some lingering questions about Navarro and his “upper body” injury and Tim Albin hinted at the backup getting more reps in the game this week. I’m not convinced that this is the week the offensive explosion happens against an underrated Akron defense.

Ohio is a slower pace team at 29.6 seconds between plays and it wouldn’t shock me to see it in a lower-scoring, grind-it-out game. If pressed, I would play Akron against the current number, but feel we are getting more value on the team total.

Pick: Ohio Team Total Under 30.5 (Play to 29)

How to Watch Akron vs Ohio Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location

[howtowatch gameid=”226763″ date=”20240928″][/howtowatch]

Akron vs Ohio Betting Trends

[bettingtrends gameid=”226763″ date=”20240928″][/bettingtrends]

Akron vs Ohio Weather

[gameforecast league=”ncaaf” gameid=”226763″ date=”2024-09-28″][/gameforecast]

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