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Akron vs Miami (Ohio) Odds, Pick: MACtion Betting Prediction for Wednesday, Nov. 8

Akron vs Miami (Ohio) Odds

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Midweek MACtion games rarely look good on paper, but we know these contests almost always exceed expectations. The conference is too crazy and unpredictable.

That’s the thought in my mind as Akron prepares to battle Miami (OH) in Oxford on Wednesday.

While the RedHawks are cruising to a MAC East title, the Zips needed 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points to claim their first FBS victory of the season last week.

Naturally, Akron’s catching 18 on the road on Wednesday night.

So, can the Zips use MACtion magic to make this stinker a competitive game? Let’s take a look at the Akron vs. Miami (OH) odds and make a pick and prediction for Wednesday’s college football clash.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

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Since DJ Irons went down, Akron’s offense has turtled.

In the first three games without their starting quarterback, the Zips scored a combined 38 points. Backup quarterbacks Jeff Undercuffler and Tahj Bullock combined to complete 53% of their passes with two touchdowns and five interceptions.

Things seemed hopeless for Akron.

That is, until last week, when Undercuffler shredded Kent State for 298 yards and three touchdowns at 7.6 yards per attempt in an unbelievable comeback victory for the Wagon Wheel. He even rushed for the game-winning touchdown.

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While it was an honorable performance, I wouldn’t expect this to remain the standard for Undercuffler and the Zips’ aerial attack. Kent State has next to no talent in the secondary, ranking fourth-to-last in EPA per Pass Allowed.

Even with that surprising performance, the Zips still rank 130th nationally in EPA per Dropback — and they’re preparing to face a loaded, stifling RedHawk defense (more on that later).

Concerning Akron’s defense, the unit has played surprisingly well at times.

The Zips rank top-60 nationally in Rush Success Rate Allowed, and the relatively talented secondary led by cornerbacks Devonte Golden-Nelson, Darrian Lewis and Tyson Durant have helped the Zips to a top-25 rank in EPA per Dropback Allowed.

However, between bad tackling and broken assignments, the Zips have allowed far too many explosive plays.

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Let’s talk about Miami’s defense.

Defensive coordinator Bill Brechin’s 4-2-5 defense is the best in the MAC.

The defensive line is filled with experience, led by edge rushers Brian Ugwu and Caiden Woullard, who have a combined 50 pressures and a pass-rush win rate of over 20%. With their help, the RedHawks rank top-40 nationally in pressure rate (31.5%).

The linebacking duo of Matt Salopek and Ty Wise are playing at a high level, especially when cleaning up in the run game — Salopek has a team-high 60 tackles and 37 stops.

But the secondary is the bright spot of this rock-solid unit.

Safeties Michael Dowell and Jacquez Warren are top-notch safety valves, helping the RedHawks prevent explosive passing plays (11th nationally in pass explosiveness allowed) while stopping opposing rushers from reaching the third level and beyond.

Meanwhile, cornerbacks Yahsyn McKee and Raion Strader have stepped up and held their own. They’ve been targeted more than any other cornerback duo in the MAC — 95 times, and Toledo is second with 81 — yet have allowed only 50 completions (52%) and three touchdowns.

The RedHawks defense is experienced and consistent. They’re 20th nationally in EPA per Play Allowed and have given up a MAC-low 61 points through five conference games. To put that in perspective, Ohio is second at 91.

Also, you may be surprised to learn that Miami (OH) ranks first nationally in Pro Football Focus’ special teams grades. The RedHawks are 11-for-11 kicking field goals and have the MAC’s highest average punt distance (47 yards).

With a defense this loaded, all quarterback Brett Gabbert had to do was stay healthy. Alas, he’ll once again miss significant time.

Backup Aveon Smith is a solid dual-threat quarterback but can’t drive the ball downfield through the air with his career completion percentage hovering around 50%.

Between Smith, lead running back Rashad Amos and a reasonably experienced offensive line, the RedHawks field a solid rushing attack — even as opponents stack the box because they no longer have to respect Gabbert and the passing game.

Miami (OH)’s likely heading to the MAC Championship game. If the RedHawks want to win that, they’ll have to control the clock with their solid rushing attack while leaning on their defense and special teams.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Akron and Miami (OH) match up statistically:

Akron Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 87 39
Line Yards 127 112
Pass Success 113 66
Havoc 106 32
Finishing Drives 129 71
Quality Drives 129 31
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Akron Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 108 56
Line Yards 58 56
Pass Success 64 35
Havoc 35 107
Finishing Drives 32 87
Quality Drives 29 75
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 59 36
PFF Coverage 69 62
Special Teams SP+ 128 5
Middle 8 114 68
Seconds per Play 27.9 (82) 30.7 (130)
Rush Rate 44.9% (127) 60.2% (25)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Akron vs Miami (OH)” subtext=”Betting Pick & Prediction” center=”false” logo1url=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/252389_action-logo-check.png”][/subheader]

It’s hard to handicap motivation.

The RedHawks are one game ahead of Ohio, Bowling Green and Buffalo with head-to-head tiebreakers over the first two and a home game against the third a week after this game.

Barring disaster, Miami (OH) is a shoo-in for the conference championship game. With that in mind, how fired up will head coach Chuck Martin and the RedHawks be for this one?

However, if you look past the motivational angle, Miami (OH) is the obvious play.

Schematically, I don’t see how the Zips score on Miami’s defense. Meanwhile, the RedHawks’ new run-first offense should take advantage of Akron’s poor tackling.

Situationally, Akron is due for a letdown after its furious comeback win last week, and I don’t expect Undercuffler to have similar success with a considerable step up in competition. At the same time, Miami (OH) is coming off a bye.

The RedHawks are 4-0 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite this year, while the Zips are 2-3 ATS as an underdog. Miami (OH) has won five straight in this rivalry by a combined score of 161-71.

And, analytically, projection systems make the RedHawks bigger favorites than the market. Our Action PRO model projects them as 19.5-point favorites, while ESPN’s SP+ model makes them 21.5-point favorites.

This game is a tad unpredictable given the situation, but if you must bet on this game, I’d lay the points with the Detroit-bound RedHawks.

Pick: Miami (OH) -18

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