The Texas Longhorns take on the Texas A&M Aggies in the SEC Tournament. Tip-off is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on SEC Network.
Texas A&M is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -270. The total is set at 139 points.
Here are my Texas vs. Texas A&M predictions and college basketball picks for March 13, 2025.
Texas vs Texas A&M Prediction
My Pick: Texas +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
My Texas vs Texas A&M best bet is on the Longhorns spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Texas vs Texas A&M Odds, Lines
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- Texas vs Texas A&M spread: Texas A&M -6
- Texas vs Texas A&M over/under: 139 points
- Texas vs Texas A&M moneyline: Texas A&M -270, Texas +220
- Texas vs Texas A&M best bet: Texas +6.5 (Play to +5.5)
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My Texas vs Texas A&M SEC Tournament Betting Preview
Welcome to a Lonestar State showdown in the SEC Tournament.
Texas kept its NCAA Tournament dreams alive with a dominant win over Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, Texas A&M hopes to snag a win over its rival after the Horns came back from down 22 points in the second half to stun the Aggies earlier in the season.
Texas A&M is just a rinse and repeat of every Buzz Williams-led team in College Station.
The Aggies have only two real scoring sources — off offensive rebounds (41% offensive rebound rate) or a runout off a turnover (20% turnover rate). If the opponent can limit A&M on the glass, it needs a low-scoring game or is out of its element.
The Aggies are pressuring defensively, and their interior dominance leads to teams bombing 3s.
Texas A&M sees opponents attempt 3s on 47% of field-goal attempts. When teams have that many 3s attempted against them, it can lead to variance, but we’re looking at a month-plus sample of teams shooting over 36% from deep against the Aggies.
The only two Texas A&M players averaging double-digits are Wade Taylor IV and Zhuric Phelps. Those two are the most boom-or-bust players in the SEC. While both average 14-plus PPG, they shoot below 38% from 3 — Taylor at 33% from 3 and Phelps at 27%.
If those two don’t score, the Aggies will need just to play volleyball all night and hope to score a bunch of second-chance points.
The Longhorns’ ability to control the ball and limit turnovers (14% turnover rate) gives them a huge edge.
Rodney Terry has several players who are comfortable handling the ball, starting with playmaker Jordan Pope and dynamic shot-creator Tre Johnson.
The key to a Longhorns win is pretty cut and dry. Which version of Johnson shows up?
He’s a shoo-in NBA lottery pick with a season-high 39 points but just had a seven-point clunker two games ago. If he goes off like he can, Texas can simply make the deficit too lofty for the Aggies’ dreadful offense to overcome.
Triples are worth more than 2-point buckets. That’s the simple math, but Texas is a way better shooting team. The big four — Pope, Johnson, Tramon Mark and Arthur Kaluma — each shoot 35% or better from deep. All of them will need to produce against the Aggies’ tough defense.
Moreover, does Terry have enough interior options to contain all the bodies at Williams’ disposal? He doesn’t have quite as many, but the Longhorns rank 132nd nationally in defensive rebounding rate.
That’s a pretty mediocre number, so Texas A&M will have chances to bury the Horns on the glass. But as Texas bettors, we need to hope the chances are as limited as can be.
The Aggies favored by 6.5 feels too high here. KenPom gives the Aggies a 72-67 edge, so there’s some value if you follow that model.
I can’t trust Texas A&M’s porous offense. I see a fairly low-scoring game that boils down to a possession or two deciding the game.
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