The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Illinois Fighting Illini in Champaign, IL. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Illinois is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -190. The total is set at 159.5 points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. Illinois predictions and college basketball picks for March 7, 2025.
Purdue vs Illinois Prediction
My Pick: Over 161.5 or Better
My Purdue vs Illinois best bet is on the over, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Purdue vs Illinois Odds, Lines
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- Purdue vs Illinois spread: Illinois -4
- Purdue vs Illinois over/under: 159.5 points
- Purdue vs Illinois moneyline: Illinois -190, Purdue +160
- Purdue vs Illinois best bet: Over 161.5 or Better
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My Purdue vs Illinois NCAAB Betting Preview
This is the final game of the regular season for each of these teams, and it’s a chance to add a big win to their resumes.
Not surprisingly, the Purdue Boilermakers and Illinois Fighting Illini are evenly matched, and that’s shown by their NCAA Tournament projections — both are between No. 4 and No. 5 seeds.
However, we can’t look ahead yet, as each of these teams are looking to end their season on a three-game winning streak.
The Fighting Illini come into this matchup with real momentum, as they’ve defeated Iowa and Michigan by 20 points each in their last two games.
That momentum should carry over into this matchup, as they take the floor for the final time in front of their home crowd in Champaign. I’m expecting the Fighting Illini to control the tempo — since that’ll be a crucial factor.
Illinois is a team that pushes the pace and has had a ton of offensive success by creating opportunities in transition. The Illini rank 17th in adjusted tempo and 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
While Purdue is a stark contrast tempo-wise (296th in adjusted tempo), we’ve seen it play up in speed to many opponents this year because it amplifies its offensive attack.
We’ve seen the Boilermakers play up to fast teams like Alabama and Ole Miss, but we’ve also seen them get hot and hang big numbers on slower-paced teams like Wisconsin and Rutgers.
Both teams have clear avenues for a high level of offensive success in this game. We talked about how the Fighting Illini like to get out in transition, and that adds to their edge in the paint.
Over 32% of the Fighting Illini’s points have come in the paint this season, and Purdue has allowed its opposition to convert 71% of their shots from the painted area.
On the other end of the court, Purdue should be able to stretch the floor and get it going from beyond the arc. The Boilermakers are seventh in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage, and Illinois is 92nd in 3-point percentage allowed.
The shooting of Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer could be the equalizer to Illinois’ tempo and projected success in the paint.
Look for this game to be a back-and-forth affair that results in a game exceeding the total with time to spare.
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