The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Michigan State Spartans in the Sweet 16. Tip-off is set for 7:09 p.m. ET on CBS.
Michigan State is favored by 3.5 points on the spread, with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 144.5 points.
Here are my Ole Miss vs. Michigan State predictions and college basketball picks for March 28, 2025.
Ole Miss vs Michigan State Prediction
My Pick: Michigan State -5 or Better
My Ole Miss vs Michigan State best bet is on the Spartans spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Ole Miss vs Michigan State Odds
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- Ole Miss vs Michigan State spread: Michigan State -3.5
- Ole Miss vs Michigan State over/under: 144.5 points
- Ole Miss vs Michigan State moneyline: Michigan State -180, Ole Miss +150
- Ole Miss vs Michigan State best bet: Michigan State -5 or Better
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My Ole Miss vs Michigan State NCAAB Betting Preview
Tom Izzo is synonymous with winning in March. He’s been to eight Final Fours, placing him among the royalty of college basketball’s coaching circles.
In the Sweet 16, he’ll face one of the rising stars of college coaches, Chris Beard. Beard has been a head coach for nine seasons, already racking up 13 NCAA Tournament wins, three trips to the second weekend and a Final Four appearance.
In that time, Beard’s teams are 12-6 ATS in the Big Dance and notably, 8-1 ATS in the first game of a tournament weekend when given time to prepare.
Beard’s team will certainly be ready for Sparty, but not just due to the coaching staff. The Ole Miss roster is the third-most experienced in all college basketball, per KenPom, and the most experienced remaining in the field.
Every significant member of the Rebels has played at least three seasons of college hoops, with three fifth-year seniors in the rotation.
That tracks with the way Ole Miss has played this season. The Rebs rank third in the nation in avoiding turnovers, leading the country in non-steal turnover rate. This isn’t a team that will make unforced errors.
If there’s an area where Ole Miss slips up, it’s defensively. The Rebels, playing Beard’s patented no-middle game plan, foul too often (317th in free throw rate allowed) and fail to protect the defensive glass (226th nationally).
Both of those are green flags for Sparty. Michigan State ranks 44th in the country in free throw rate on the offensive end and grabs 36% of its own misses, 19th-highest in college hoops.
The Spartans aren’t huge, but they play with muscle, especially 6-foot-9 Jaxon Kohler, who’s one of the country’s best offensive rebounders.
If you’re looking to back Ole Miss, you’d hope Beard and company could find a way to offset those disadvantages, possibly by outshooting the Spartans. Michigan State is a bad 3-point shooting team at just 31%, with fewer than 10 teams in the country scoring a lower percentage of their points via the long ball.
That opens the door for a hot shooting night to propel Ole Miss to a victory, yet I’m skeptical it will happen. Mississippi has made 17-of-39 from deep this tournament (44%). In the eight games before the Big Dance, Ole Miss made just 29.4% from 3-point land.
This is a team whose fortunes tend to be dictated by its shooting. In 12 games making better than 38% from deep, Ole Miss is 11-1. In 13 games making less than one-third of their triples, the Rebs are 6-7 this season.
Enter the Spartans’ defense, which allowed the single worst 3-point percentage in college basketball this season, just 27.8%. It’s likely that Ole Miss’ hot shooting weekend comes to a close when facing Izzo’s team, which is built to contest jump shots.
The Rebels’ two-game hot streak is far more susceptible to regression than the large sample size of this entire Michigan State season.
In fact, the sample goes even deeper. Izzo hasn’t allowed opponents to make 3s at a percentage above the national average since 2011.
Ole Miss is certainly capable of winning this game or covering the spread.
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