College Basketball National Championship Picks, Best Bets for Houston vs. Florida

College Basketball National Championship Picks, Best Bets

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
[teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Florida Gators” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” secondfullname=”Houston Cougars” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup]	8:50 ET	Houston ML
[teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Florida Gators” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” secondfullname=”Houston Cougars” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup]	8:50 ET	Houston ML
[teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Florida Gators” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” secondfullname=”Houston Cougars” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/hou.png”][/teammatchup]	8:50 ET	Houston ML
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.

It all comes down to this: Florida vs. Houston in San Antonio for all the marbles.

Our experts have been following and providing college basketball picks all season long, and we have three handicappers who are all aligned on this particular best bet for Monday.

So, read below for NCAAB National Championship best bets, including three top picks, predictions and odds for Monday, April 7.

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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Florida vs. Houston Picks”][/subheader]

[gameheader haspick=”false” league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/fla.png” awayname=”Florida Gators” awayslug=”florida-gators” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/hou.png” homename=”Houston Cougars” homeslug=”houston-cougars” date=”Monday, April 7″ time=”8:50 ET ET” network=”CBS”][/gameheader]

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By Tanner McGrath

I thought Auburn’s ball pressure and physicality bothered Florida in the Final Four, especially in the first half. Will Richard struggled mightily while Alex Condon looked like a boy amongst men battling with Johni Broome in the paint.

As we all know, Houston is an entirely different animal in the ball pressure and physicality departments, and I expect that to show on Monday night.

Of course, Florida won that Final Four matchup against Auburn, but the game flipped in the second half behind the Gators’ off-the-dribble creation — specifically from the magnificent Walter Clayton Jr., but also Alijah Martin.

However, Auburn’s base drop-coverage defense invites that type of dribble creation. Houston’s ball-screen blitz does the opposite, as the Cougars will attack the Gators’ guards and force the ball out of their hands.

Florida doesn’t create many secondary catch-and-shoot opportunities, which is what you need to do against Houston. The Gators beat Auburn with only 11 catch-and-shoot shots (and making only three), which won’t fly in the national title game.

On the other end of the court, Houston’s ball-screen-centric offense is a fairly easy scout, and Florida is good in ball-screen coverage.

However, the Gators are also a tad weak on the defensive boards and in post-up coverage, again where Houston’s frontcourt physicality will really show — not to mention, the Cougars have the frontcourt depth to battle with Florida’s rim wall.

Kelvin Sampson is a master game-planner, and his in-game adjustments have shown during this tournament run.

I think he and the ultra-physical Cougars have the advantage over Todd Golden and the Gators.

Pick: Houston +100

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By John Feltman

I’ve been fading Florida for the last few rounds, but I’m taking my final stand on Monday night.

Clayton’s sensational tournament run has been breathtaking to watch, but the Gators have a rude awakening incoming against the Houston Cougars.

I’m still trying to process how the Coogs beat Duke on Saturday night, but they proved to the world that they’re the most relentless and toughest team college basketball has seen in the last several years.

Sampson has dreamed of an opportunity to win a National Championship, and on Monday night, he finally gets his chance. After a long wait, Sampson will now have his moment of greatness.

The Coogs may not be as explosive offensively as the Gators, but they’re the best defensive team in the nation for a reason. They’ll out-hustle, out-rebound and beat opponents to a pulp for 40 minutes.

The Sampson teams of the past didn’t have the consistent scoring to win a National Championship, but he has that with star guard LJ Cryer and his explosive backcourt mate, Emanuel Sharp.

The Gators had to come from behind again on Saturday against Auburn, and I’ll reiterate that they’ve been playing with fire for the entire tournament. They want to outrun their opponents with their high-octane offense, but they can’t do that against the Coogs.

Houston will slow this game to a crawl, as Auburn tried to do. If Houston can’t contain the pace, it has no chance of winning.

But I’ve never been more confident in a Sampson team. The Coogs proved on Saturday night that they can overcome the worst type of adversity in a game, and they never panic.

The Coogs’ offensive rebounding advantage should lead to plenty of second-scoring chances. It’ll also slow down the Gators’ offense from running out in transition as often as they would like.

The one area Florida has played with defensive fire is on the perimeter. It did a better job containing the Tigers from the outside, but it still allowed a lot of clean looks.

The Coogs are an outstanding 3-point shooting team, and Cryer can drop 35-plus if he gets hot.

Another element that seems to be getting overlooked is that this will practically be an actual road game for the Gators, and I expect the crowd in San Antonio to be 75% pro-Houston.

Pick: Houston +100

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By Sean Paul

You can never put the Florida Gators away. For a third time in the NCAA Tournament, the Gators looked doomed. Instead, the high-powered Florida offense found its footing late and the Gators advanced to the title game.

As for Houston, a lot of the same can be said. Coming back from down seven with a minute left and down 14 with eight minutes left in the Final Four is unheard of.

Those comebacks will lead to real contrasting styles in the championship game.

Houston is the best team in America in two pivotal areas. The first is defensive efficiency, which isn’t surprising for a Kelvin Sampson-coached team. The other is 3-point percentage at 39.9%. Even when the Coogs can’t score inside, they can fill it up from deep — like we saw against Duke.

LJ Cryer, Milos Uzan and Emanuel Sharp each hit some very timely shots in that Final Four affair. Cryer poured in 26 points against Duke, and Sharp always finds a way to hit a clutch 3.

What I’m most interested to see is how those guards defend Florida’s backcourt.

Houston is the best defensive team for a reason, but Florida ranks second in offensive efficiency and has some really dominant guards. I expect the Coogs to hard hedge on pick-and-rolls and then recover onto the bigs.

However, when Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh are on the floor, they’ll likely float to the perimeter for a pick-and-pop 3.

While that might seem like an advantage for Florida, I’d argue the opposite. The Cougars hold teams to 30% shooting from 3 and 44% from 2. If you’re forcing the Gators to a perimeter-oriented attack, it could lead to some late-clock half-court possessions.

Meanwhile, Walter Clayton Jr is playing like 2025’s version of Kemba Walker. He’s on a tear like none other, scoring 30+ points in back-to-back games.

He’ll likely get his points in this one, but Sampson is typically pretty good at figuring out ways to contain star players. Maybe he mixes in some double teams to keep the ball out of Clayton’s hands and make him a passer, which isn’t his forte.

The Gators got shredded by Auburn on the offensive glass in the first half. We’ll see how big of a role that is in this game, as the Cougars boast a 37% offensive rebound rate, compared to Florida’s mediocre 133rd defensive rebound rate.

That’s one of the biggest swing categories in a game like this. If a team like Houston — which plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country — can control the tempo by retaining the ball via offensive rebounds, that greatly favors it.

All in all, this game feels like whoever dictates the pace will win. Florida can’t beat Houston in a half-court game and Houston can’t beat Florida in a shootout.

I think Houston has more ways to beat the Gators, though. The offensive boards and shooting are huge in this matchup and will lead to Houston capturing its first ever national title.

I think Houston should be favored by a point, so I’ll grab the Cougars moneyline in the title game.

Pick: Houston +100

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