With Selection Sunday right around the corner, I intend to capitalize on a futures line that I believe is off the mark.
I’ll dive into the full details below with my NCAAB Final Four futures pick and expert analysis.
(The time of writing is on Friday, so this line could move based on results, injuries, etc. Be sure to shop for the best line, as well.)
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The futures market isn’t solely reflective of a team’s potential. Public perception plays a massive role in how these teams are priced.
Gonzaga illustrates this point in 2025.
The Bulldogs remain an analytical darling and a fan favorite, having appeared in nine straight Sweet 16s under Mark Few. But it’s likely that Gonzaga will receive a seven or eight seed on Selection Sunday.
Yet, due to their popularity, the Bulldogs are being priced in the same neighborhood (+4000 National Title, +750 Final Four) as presumptive four seeds like Arizona and Maryland.
While bettors pay a Gonzaga “tax,” there are also undervalued teams that fall into the “non-public” category. Teams can be mispriced for a variety of reasons ranging from style of play and location to TV exposure and poor NCAA Tournament track record.
If you’re a sound defensive team that plays slow and rarely appears on national TV — like Gonzaga’s WCC rival Saint Mary’s — there’s a good chance your odds are inflated.
Despite a higher national ranking, two wins over Gonzaga and a seven-time WCC Coach of the Year on the bench, the Gaels’ odds are considerably more lucrative (+10000 National Title, +2100 Final Four) than the Zags’.
This public vs. non-public phenomenon is also playing out in the ACC, and I intend to capitalize on it. Duke has sucked up all the oxygen in the conference this season and enters the NCAA Tournament as a co-favorite to cut down the nets, alongside Auburn.
Cooper Flagg’s ankle injury and subsequent exit from the ACC Tournament has done little to temper expectations. If anything, the public’s unwavering faith in the Blue Devils has inflated the odds on the second-best team in the league, Clemson.
If Clemson was a basketball school its odds to make the Final Four would be close to +1000. After all, this team made the Elite Eight last season. Brad Brownell’s team ranks inside the top 25 on both ends of the floor, per KenPom, and has the capacity to shoot the lights out from downtown (37.3%, 29th).
When the Tigers have been afforded the opportunity to play quality opponents, they’ve delivered in wins over Kentucky and Duke. According to Evan Miyakawa, Clemson ranks fourth among power-conference teams in the “Opponent Adjust” metric.
What this means is that the Tigers played noticeably better against quality opponents. Their impressive metrics aren’t just empty calories, this team rises to the occasion when it matters most.
An experienced team (eighth out of 364 teams), with no appreciable weaknesses, that’s made a name for itself in the big game hunting department, surely they’re prohibitively priced? Surprisingly, you can still grab them at +1500 to make the Final Four and +6500 to win it all.
Clemson’s only true weakness is its depth. Dillon Hunter, a key rotational player for Brownell, is dealing with a finger injury. Even with Hunter in the fold, the drop off from Clemson’s top-rated player, according to Miyakawa, to its eighth best player is noticeable.
Among Final Four contenders in the Tigers’ pricing neighborhood, only Texas A&M and Maryland have a larger drop off when they go deep into their bench.
The good news for Brownell and his short bench strategy is that his team is incredibly disciplined from a fouling perspective. Clemson commits just 15 fouls per game (36th). Ian Schieffelin and Viktor Lakhin, as a frontcourt duo, have fouled out just once since January 1.
Running into a deep team like Duke, Auburn or even BYU could expose Clemson’s rotational depth, but it’s made it this far without any noticeable meltdowns.
At this price, I’m willing to roll the dice that the whistles go the Tigers’ way and they avoid the injury bug on their way to the program’s first Final Four appearance.
Pick: Clemson Tigers to Make Final Four +1500