The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers take on the Duke Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS.
Duke is favored by 32 points on the spread with a moneyline of -20000. The total is set at 141 points.
Here are my Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke predictions and college basketball picks for March 21, 2025.
Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke Prediction
My Pick: 1H Under 66.5
My Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke best bet is on both teams to stay under the first-half total, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke Odds, Lines
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- Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke spread: Duke -32
- Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke over/under: 141 points
- Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke moneyline: Duke -20000, Mount St. Mary’s +2800
- Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke best bet: 1H Under 66.5
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My Mount St. Mary’s vs Duke NCAAB Betting Preview
A 16-seed has beaten a 1-seed only twice in the history of the NCAA Tournament. So, it’s safe to say that the Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers are not expected to be very competitive in this one.
The spread is also indicative of that, as the Duke Blue Devils are favored by 32.5. While the spread is steep, Duke’s sizable advantages create value on another angle.
The Blue Devils should be in total control of this matchup, and that starts on the defensive end of the floor. These two teams are on opposite ends of the spectrum when the Mountaineers are in possession.
Mount St. Mary’s ranks 283rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Duke ranks fourth in adjusted defense efficiency. A closer look shows that the Mountaineers could have major offensive struggles, as over 35% of their offense has come in the paint.
Meanwhile, the Blue Devils have the third-best 2-point percentage allowed in the country and have held their opposition to just 54% from the painted area.
Stretching the floor is also not really an option for Mount St. Mary’s, as Carmelo Pacheco was its only perimeter threat, and we haven’t seen him since March 8.
On the other end, Duke should face little resistance when working the ball inside. We went over its size advantage, but the combination of talent and experience was on full display during the ACC Tournament, and that should continue here.
The Blue Devils’ X-factor is Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 in the upcoming NBA Draft.
Flagg is probable for this matchup after suffering an ankle injury and missing the majority of the conference tournament last week.
While he’s likely to be on the floor, his impact may be limited, as we don’t know the true health of his ankle. If Flagg isn’t 100% and starts slow, it could set the offense back in the early going.
Speaking of slow, Duke’s offensive tempo is the key to our angle in this matchup. I expect the Mountaineers to struggle mightily on offense, and while Duke will put up points, its adjusted tempo of 268th tells me that the Blue Devils’ lead is going to be built methodically.
Look for this to go under the first-half total.
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