The Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers take on the American Eagles in the NCAA Tournament First Four. Tip-off is set for 6:40 p.m. ET on truTV.
American is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. The total is set at 128.5 points.
Here are my Mount St. Mary’s vs. American predictions and college basketball picks for March 19, 2025.
Mount St. Mary’s vs American Prediction
My Pick: American -2 (Play to -2.5)
My Mount St. Mary’s vs American best bet is on the Eagles spread, with the best odds currently available at Caesars. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Mount St. Mary’s vs American Odds, Spread
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- Mount St. Mary’s vs American spread: American -2.5
- Mount St. Mary’s vs American over/under: 128.5 points
- Mount St. Mary’s vs American moneyline: American -148, Mount St. Mary’s +124
- Mount St. Mary’s vs American best bet: American -2 (Play to -2.5)
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Mount St. Mary’s vs American First Four Betting Preview
Mount St. Mary’s enters Wednesday’s playoff game fresh off an insane MAAC title run.
The six-seed Mountaineers were down starter Carmelo Pacheco and key rotation piece Terrell Ard Jr. and yet still knocked off three of the best four teams in the league in quick succession. Mount rides a 10-3 run since Jan. 25 into its first tourney bid since 2021.
American brought back the most minutes in the country this season, and that proved invaluable to its impressive Patriot League performance. The Eagles handled league power Colgate en route to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2014.
This should be a close game between two evenly-matched foes. The Mount is a team comprised of a bunch of high-motor guys. They’re offensively challenged, but they cut and move the ball pretty well in spite of their shortcomings.
Ball handling has been their biggest bugaboo, ranking 359th in the country in turnover rate. American is susceptible to off-ball movement, but its true weakness is defending the paint and the rim.
Mount St. Mary’s doesn’t really pound it inside — and instead settles for jumpers — but its two versatile forwards — Jedy Cordilia and Dola Adebayo — could be matchup challenges. Both are long athletes with high motors who can play multiple spots.
American struggles with size and athleticism, and while the Mount isn’t very big, it’s far more athletic. That can likely be overcome by the huge edge the Eagles will have in turnover margin, as Mount’s aforementioned ball-handling struggles could be magnified by American’s ball pressure.
The Eagles forced the highest turnover rate in the Patriot League this season.
On the other end, American is led by veteran guards who take care of the rock, and the Mount doesn’t force turnovers.
Look for the Eagles to bomb away from deep — they attempt 3s at a top-60 rate nationally, and the Mount allows a high 3-point attempt rate.
Mount St. Mary’s will mix in some full-court pressure and zone looks, but don’t expect that to overly bother the sure-handed American guards.
Matt Rogers is the fulcrum of American’s offensive attack — it’ll play through him in the post, at the elbow and even at the top of the key. He can score from all three levels and is a willing passer.
With his versatility and being surrounded by great shooters in Elijah Stephens and Greg Jones, Rogers could be a massive matchup problem.
The Mount has defended the paint well this year, but if shots are falling, it’ll be forced to extend. Rogers will test just how mobile Adebayo and Cordilia are in space.
Theoretically, they should be pretty apt matchups for him, but Rogers has been somewhat unstoppable all year against mid-to-low major competition.
Expect a slow, low-scoring game, as neither team looks to push the issue in the open floor.
With Pacheco (finger) out, look for American to win the battle with its experience, shooting and superior guard play.
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