Action Network has developed an elite betting algorithm that targets roughly 50 college basketball games per year and lights up for Michigan State vs. Illinois on Friday night.
The proprietary algorithm has gone 488-370-22 (57% win rate) since 2005, returning an annual 11% on investment during that timeframe.
Since 2005, if you had wagered $500 on the roughly 50 college basketball games per season that have fit this algorithm, you’d be up more than $45,000.
We don’t recommend using this betting algorithm as an alternative to investing — variance is a much sturdier constraint in sports gambling compared to the financial markets — but similar principles apply in regard to gains over a long time horizon.
Michigan State vs. Illinois: The Elite Algorithm Pick for Friday
This betting algorithm has a list of parameters it considers when targeting a specific game and line. In general, it fades the public during conference games.
The public tends to overvalue popular conference opponents — while wagering on them heavily — and sportsbooks are forced to price lines accordingly.
“Fade the public,” indicates empirically that fewer than 25% of bettors are riding with the team that you’d be betting on. Conversely, 75% or more of the public is enamored with the team you’d fade.
In addition, the game in question must have a lower total (between 128 and 146.5) in order to temper variance.
Lastly, the conference game needs to take place in the Big 12, SEC, Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten or Big East. So, only big-time conferences work for this ATS system.
All those parameters fit the Illinois point spread tonight. Action Network’s proprietary tracking data reports that only 13% of wagers from all major American sportsbooks is on the Fighting Illini to cover on Friday.
A ridiculous 87% of the public is taking the points with Michigan State. The total also fits the aforementioned parameters.
The best price on the market is with PointsBet at Illinois -5.5 (-110).
Keep in mind that this historically profitable algorithm applies to about 50 college basketball games per year. While Friday night might be an opportunity to cash in, this is a long-term investment.
In order to maximize your 11% return on investment, make sure to follow through whenever this algorithm provides picks for the rest of the season.
PRO Pick: Illinois -5.5 (-110) or better