The Maryland Terrapins take on the Northwestern Wildcats in Evanston, IL. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Maryland is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -136. The total is set at 142.5 points.
Here are my Maryland vs. Northwestern predictions and college basketball picks for January 16, 2025.
Maryland vs Northwestern Prediction
My Pick: Northwestern +1.5 (Play to PK)
My Maryland vs Northwestern best bet is on the Wildcats spread, with the best odds currently available at BetRivers. For all of your college basketball bets, find the best lines using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maryland vs Northwestern Odds
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- Maryland vs Northwestern spread: Maryland -1.5
- Maryland vs Northwestern over/under: 142.5 points
- Maryland vs Northwestern moneyline: Maryland -136, Northwestern +112
- Maryland vs Northwestern best bet: Northwestern +1.5 (Play to PK)
Spread
I’m backing the Wildcats on the spread as short home ‘dogs.
Moneyline
I’m passing on the moneyline, but I expect Northwestern to win this game outright.
Over/Under
I’m passing on the over/under.
My Pick: Northwestern +1.5 (Play to PK)
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[howtowatch gameid=”238628″ date=”20250116″][/howtowatch]
Maryland vs Northwestern College Basketball Betting Preview
Northwestern is way overdue for a win.
The Wildcats have lost three straight. But the losses were against borderline-elite competition (Penn State on the road, Purdue on the road, Michigan State at home) and were aided by some brutal shooting luck (18-for-72 3-point shooting, 25%; 20-for-43 3-point shooting allowed, 37%).
I’m banking on that luck flipping and Northwestern finally picking up a much-needed bounce-back win.
Meanwhile, Thursday is a perfect letdown spot for Maryland, which is heading on the road after back-to-back home wins over UCLA and Minnesota.
Home court is always worth betting in the Big Ten. You’d have picked up a 4% ROI blindly backing home teams in conference play over the past decade.
However, Northwestern swept this head-to-head series last year because the Terps don’t match up well with the ‘Cats.
Chris Collins runs an uber-compact, almost box-and-one defense that relentlessly post traps, thus making it very hard for post-reliant and inside-out offenses to work. The Wildcats rank seventh nationally in post-up points per game allowed (1.6 at .53 PPP).
Also, the Wildcats are elite in transition denial (eight transition possessions per game allowed, sixth-lowest nationally; five fast-break points per game allowed, third-lowest nationally).
That’s a problem for Kevin Willard’s offense, which runs plenty in transition while scoring almost exclusively in posting, cutting and rolling actions in the half-court — mainly through Julian Reese and breakout freshman Derik Queen.
[twitterembed tweetid=”1878988012471914531″][/twitterembed]
On the other end of the court, Maryland plays strict drop-coverage defense, dropping Reese and Queen. Typically, that leaves the middle-floor, high-painted and mid-range areas open, where the Terps allow nearly 10 field-goal attempts per game (fourth percentile).
Meanwhile, Northwestern plays mostly booty ball with Nick Martinelli and Brooks Barnhizer, who combine for nearly 40 points per game.
Much of their production comes from the mid-range, as the Wildcats take over 10 mid-range field goal attempts per game (91st percentile). It’s a pretty decent offense for exploiting drop-coverage’s vulnerabilities.
For example, here’s Martinelli shredding the Fighting Illini’s drop-coverage defense:
[twitterembed tweetid=”1865260194801877304″][/twitterembed]
I’m hoping he and Brooks can do the same thing on Thursday.
I love the situational spot and schematic matchup for Northwestern. If Martinelli and Barnhizer hit their mid-range jumpers — while Queen and Reese struggle against post-traps and double-teams — I wouldn’t be surprised if the Wildcats won outright.
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