The Maryland Terrapins take on the Michigan Wolverines in Ann Arbor, MI. Tip-off is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network.
Michigan is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -140. The total is set at 153 points.
Here are my Maryland vs. Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for March 5, 2025.
Maryland vs Michigan Prediction
My Pick: PASS | Lean Maryland +1.5
My Maryland vs Michigan best bet is on the Terrapins spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Maryland vs Michigan Odds, Lines
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- Maryland vs Michigan spread: Michigan -2.5
- Maryland vs Michigan over/under: 153 points
- Maryland vs Michigan moneyline: Michigan -140, Maryland +120
- Maryland vs Michigan best bet: PASS | Lean Maryland +1.5
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[howtowatch gameid=”240855″ date=”20250305″][/howtowatch]
My Maryland vs Michigan NCAAB Betting Preview
Michigan is among the more overvalued teams nationally, mostly because the Wolverines keep sneaking by with close wins despite a relatively average overall statistical profile.
Their past nine wins have come by four or fewer points, and they recently suffered blowout losses to Michigan State (75-62) and Illinois (93-73).
Has the market corrected after that most recent loss? Or can we continue to fade the Wolverines in this home matchup with Maryland?
I’m uncertain, but I think the Terps are a tough matchup for the Wolverines either way.
Stopping Michigan is about stopping the Wolverines’ Danny Wolf-Vlad Goldin big man pick-and-roll sets, through which they generate a super high rim-and-3 rate (90%, highest in the Big Ten, per ShotQuality).
However, Maryland runs an excellent two-big drop-coverage defense behind Derik Queen and Julian Reese, two big men with enough lateral movement to hang with the uniquely sized Wolverines.
The Terps are an excellent ball-screen coverage defense (.80 PPP allowed, 91st percentile, per Synergy) and force opponents into on-ball, middle-of-the-court creation — i.e., the mid-range.
They rank in the top 30 nationally in rim-and-3 rate allowed (78%, per ShotQuality), so they should be able to deny Michigan those all-important rim-and-3 opportunities.
I like Tre Donaldson, but I don’t trust Michigan’s overall guard play, and I don’t trust the Wolverines’ ability to create efficiently in the mid-range on high volume. They’re only shooting 35% from the mid-range area on four attempts per game in conference play (per CBB Analytics).
Everyone should know by now that Michigan has a brutal turnover problem — part of its lackluster guard play.
The Terps are a press-happy defense that will hound opposing guards with on-ball pressure, and I don’t trust the Wolverines’ turnover-prone lackluster press offense (.87 PPP, 39th percentile, per Synergy).
If Michigan throws the ball away against Maryland’s pressure, that’ll allow the Terps to get going in transition, where they’re deadly. The Terps average nearly 14 fast-break points per game (second in Big Ten, per CBB Analytics), while the Wolverines struggle with transition defense (1.09 PPP allowed, 22nd percentile, per Synergy).
The Wolverines also run a decent two-big drop.
Still, they’ve struggled defending the dribble (.81 pick-and-roll ball-handler PPP allowed, 39th percentile, per Synergy), and that could be deadly against Ja’Kobi Gillespie, who’s ripped apart drop coverage all year with his elite dribble and shot creation.
Here’s Gillespie ripping apart Illinois’ drop back in late January:
[twitterembed tweetid=”1882676662506045501″][/twitterembed]
So, I’m inclined to back the Terps here.
That said, I’m scared of backing Maryland on the road, where it’s 3-6 ATS this year and ranks 350th nationally in Haslametrics’ away-from-home metric.
The Terps couldn’t put away Penn State in Happy Valley last Saturday and now hit the road for the second straight game, which doesn’t make me feel great.
I’m also not totally sold on Maryland’s defense against Michigan. Despite their lackluster guard play, the Wolverines are built to smash drop coverage — Wolf and Goldin are trump cards against many defensive coverages, especially more passive ones.
I’ll pass on this game altogether. But if I had to pick a side, I’d back Gillespie, Queen and Reese against the potentially-still-overvalued Wolverines.
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