The Lipscomb Bisons take on the Iowa State Cyclones in the NCAA Tournament. Tip-off is set for 1:30 p.m. ET on TNT.
Iowa State is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -1400. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here are my Lipscomb vs. Iowa State predictions and college basketball picks for March 21, 2025.
Lipscomb vs Iowa State Prediction
My Pick: Lipscomb +15.5 or Better
My Lipscomb vs Iowa State best bet is on the Bisons spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Lipscomb vs Iowa State Odds, Spread, Pick
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- Lipscomb vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -14.5
- Lipscomb vs Iowa State over/under: 143.5 points
- Lipscomb vs Iowa State moneyline: Iowa State -1400, Lipscomb +850
- Lipscomb vs Iowa State best bet: Lipscomb +15.5 or Better
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My Lipscomb vs Iowa State NCAA Tournament Betting Preview
While no team is safe in March Madness, the 3-seeds typical feel safe. Over the course of history, 4-seeds lose their opening round game about 21% of the time. That’s a whisker away from meaning one of the four teams on the four line gets bounced each year.
The 3-seeds however, lose their opener 15% of the time. That’s not a monumental difference, but a clear shift that indicates there are many years without a 14-seed winning. In fact, from 2017 to 2019 and again in 2022 and 2023, the 14-seeds were swept. In 20 of the 39 tournaments with an expanded field, at least one 3-seed has lost in the Round of 64.
Iowa State should feel safe, in theory. In practice, there are yellow and red flags about this matchup with ASUN champion Lipscomb.
The primary reason for concern comes via injury. Iowa State’s second leading scorer and leading assist man Keshon Gilbert has been ruled out for the rest of the season. Tamin Lipsey, Gilbert’s backcourt mate, is also hampered but expected to play.
Losing Gilbert is massive. His ability to score or create for others is paramount to everything Iowa State aims to do offensively. Perhaps more importantly, he makes a significant impact on the Cyclones’ top-10 ranked defense.
With Gilbert on the court, Iowa State has allowed 94.7 points per 100 possessions, according to Hoop-Explorer. Without him, that number jumps to 103.2 points per possession. When Gilbert sits, the Clones allow higher shooting percentages from 3-point range and mid-range jumpers.
That’s music to the ears of a Lipscomb team that lives on jump shots, shooting 3s at a top 30 rate in the nation.
The real key will come in the turnover battle, where Iowa State typically thrives. The Cyclones rank 14th in the country in forcing turnovers and are able to quickly turn those into scoring chances at the other end.
Lipscomb is capable of protecting the ball. The Bisons rank 22nd in turnover rate this season, coughing it up on just 14% of possessions.
Against high level competition, the Bisons have been a mixed bag, especially in the turnover department.
Against Kentucky, Lipscomb only had six turnovers. Late in the second half of that game, the Wildcats led by 40 points, largely due to 3-point dominance. Kentucky made 12-of-25 from deep, while the normally hot Bisons hit just 5-of-29.
Facing Arkansas, Lipscomb shot the ball better, but tied a season-high with 18 turnovers. Those mistakes squandered the Bisons’ chances to win that game, which they trailed by just eight mid-second half.
Big man Jacob Ognacevic keys the Bisons’ offense. If he can handle the increased athleticism and pressure of Iowa State, Lipscomb can linger late into this game.
Gilbert’s injury, Lipscomb’s ability to be slow and deliberate offensively and the Bisons’ ability to protect the ball should keep this one within the spread.
The Bisons will run into trouble if they commit needless turnovers or stumble into an ice-cold shooting day.
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