The Colorado Buffaloes take on the TCU Horned Frogs in Kansas City, Mo. Tip-off is set for 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
TCU is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. The total is set at 133.5 points.
Here are my Colorado vs. TCU predictions and college basketball picks for March 11, 2025.
Colorado vs TCU Prediction
My Pick: TCU -1.5 (Play to -3)
My Colorado vs TCU best bet is on the Horned Frogs spread, with the best odds currently available at DraftKings. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Colorado vs TCU Odds, Lines, Pick
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- Colorado vs TCU spread: TCU -2.5
- Colorado vs TCU over/under: 133.5 points
- Colorado vs TCU moneyline: TCU -155, Colorado +130
- Colorado vs TCU best bet: TCU -1.5 (Play to -3)
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[howtowatch gameid=”252264″ date=”20250311″][/howtowatch]
My Colorado vs TCU College Basketball Betting Preview
The Colorado Buffaloes finished last in the Big 12, but even the worst team in the Big 12 isn’t that bad. The Buffs beat this same TCU team by 20 in their Big 12 finale.
I’m not making a bet based on that result, though.
The game was in Boulder, which matters a lot. The home court advantage with the elevation is pretty drastic.
I like the Horned Frogs here because I trust their defense more. TCU ranks 32nd in KenPom’s defensive efficiency with an impressive 19% turnover rate.
On the flip side, Colorado is turnover prone, giving the ball off a jarring 21% of the time (351st nationally). The Buffaloes only turned it over 14 times in the win over TCU.
The Buffs aren’t a good offensive team and don’t have much in the scoring department besides Julian Hammond, who leads the unit with 12.6 points per game.
Colorado makes up for some of its offensive issues with a top-60 ranked defense. Opponents shoot just 48.8% from inside the arc, and it’s made even tougher by 6-foot-11 shot-swatter Bangot Dak, who boasts a 7.9% block rate.
On the down side, Colorado sends teams to the line at an alarming clip.
Similarly, TCU is a terrible offensive team, ranking 198th in offensive efficiency. The Horned Frogs are shooting 29% from deep, 48% from inside the arc and 65% from the line. None of those are good, but TCU can bail itself out with an elite 32% offensive rebound rate.
The offense comes and goes with Vasean Allette. For example, the sophomore guard scored 17 points with nine assists when TCU beat UCF a few weeks ago. But he’s scored less than 10 points in the past two games.
Keep an eye on Allette and veteran guard Noah Reynolds, as those are the players who can lift TCU to a decent offensive showing.
Also, the Frogs’ bigs — Ernest Udeh Jr., David Punch and Trazarien White — should cause real problems for Colorado’s less beefy interior (besides Elijah Malone). Nobody on Colorado’s roster averages more than 4.9 rebounds, which is pretty strange for a Big 12 team.
I think TCU will bounce back on a neutral court. This is a better team from top to bottom than Colorado, and it’ll come out differently after getting its doors blown off just a couple of days ago.
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