We’re one day away from the bracket unveiling, but before we get to Selection Sunday, there’s plenty of storylines and betting value on Championship Saturday.
In fact, our staff has three college basketball games they’re targeting — all conference championship duels — on Saturday night.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three top NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Saturday, March 15.
(There’s a parlay option below, even though that’s not our official recommendation.)
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College Basketball Best Bets for Championship Saturday
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Creighton Bluejays” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/crei.png” secondfullname=”St. John’s Red Storm” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/sju.png”][/teammatchup] | 6:30 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Mount Saint Mary’s Mountaineers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/msm.png” secondfullname=”Iona Gaels” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/iona.png”][/teammatchup] | 7:30 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Louisville Cardinals” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/lou.png” secondfullname=”Duke Blue Devils” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png”][/teammatchup] | 8:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Creighton vs. St. John’s”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”St. John’s -6.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/crei.png” awayname=”Creighton Bluejays” awayslug=”creighton-bluejays” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/sju.png” homename=”St. John’s Red Storm” homeslug=”st-john’s-red-storm” date=”Saturday, March 15″ time=”6:30 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”Caesars Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
For the first time since 2000, the St. John’s Red Storm will play in the Big East Tournament title game, in the hallowed arena it calls home.
The Red Storm were incredible in Friday’s semifinals, beating Marquette. The Golden Eagles jumped out to an early 15-point lead, scoring 24 of the game’s first 33 points.
In the game’s final 32 minutes (and change), St. John’s bashed Marquette by a score of 70-39. Marquette’s offense, typically crisp and efficient, was completely flummoxed by the Red Storm defense.
Marquette had not committed more than 13 turnovers in a game this season, but coughed up 17 on Friday night, compared to just six assists. The Golden Eagles’ 6-for-29 outside shooting felt like a cold outing, though in reality, it was the result of being hounded by the Johnnies for the entirety of every possession.
Nothing was open for Marquette, except the doors to exit Madison Square Garden.
In the nightcap, Creighton outdueled a surging UConn team, that rallied from a 15-point deficit, but ultimately came up short of the Bluejays.
Creighton and St. John’s have met twice already this season, splitting the meetings with each team winning at home. In Omaha, Creighton made nine 3-pointers. Meanwhile, St. John’s merely attempted nine and made just two shots from long range.
That shooting discrepancy outweighed the effects of the Johnnies’ swarming defense, including Creighton point guard Steven Ashworth’s 10 turnovers, a career high in his 160+ collegiate outings.
In the rematch in Manhattan, St. John’s outmuscled the Bluejays, nabbing 20 offensive rebounds and earning 29 trips to the free throw line.
The key matchup in both outings came when St. John’s had the ball.
Creighton has made a living for nearly half a decade playing four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner in drop coverage in the middle of the lane. His teammates force shooters off the 3-point line, left with the choice to attack an elite shot blocker or settle for low efficiency mid-range jump shots.
The Johnnies, however, aren’t built to shoot the 3. They do it poorly and sparingly. Rick Pitino’s guys instead attack the rim or operate in the mid-range. Constantly ramming at Kalkbrenner at the rim could be a fool’s errand, but St. John’s is more adept than that.
Besides, as much as we want St. John’s offense to make some kind of spark, the Red Storm win on the other end of the floor. The pressure of the St. John’s defense feeds everything Pitino wants from his team.
With the energy of a wildly pro-Johnnies crowd in the building, it would feel psychotic to not expect St. John’s to answer the bell.
I’ll take it to win and cover.
Pick: St. John’s -6.5
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Mount St. Mary’s vs. Iona”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Iona -3.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/msm.png” awayname=”Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers” awayslug=”mount-st-mary’s-mountaineers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/iona.png” homename=”Iona Gaels” homeslug=”iona-gaels” date=”Saturday, March 15″ time=”7:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPNU” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
By Sean Paul
The Iona Gaels pulled off the upset of the MAAC Tournament on Friday, with an 81-73 win over No. 1 Quinnipiac.
I wasn’t surprised to see it, though. Tobin Anderson’s squad is playing the best out of anybody in the MAAC, sitting over 50 spots ahead of the next closest team in T-Rank since Feb. 1.
In this particular duel, I’m targeting one stat that should decide the game — turnovers. Mount St. Mary’s has given the ball away over 21% of the time since February 1, which is brutal against Anderson’s full-court pressure defense that forces turnovers at a 19% clip.
Sure, Mount St. Mary’s beat Merrimack and Marist, but Iona is the best team in the conference right now. This is a totally different beast.
The guard duo of Adam Njie and Dejour Reaves has played great lately. They scored 20+ points apiece in the win over Quinnipiac, and I expect more of the same here.
Pick: Iona -3.5 (Play to -5)
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Louisville vs. Duke”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Duke -5.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/lou.png” awayname=”Louisville Cardinals” awayslug=”louisville-cardinals” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” homename=”Duke Blue Devils” homeslug=”duke-blue-devils” date=”Saturday, March 15″ time=”8:30 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Sean Paul
The Duke Blue Devils squandered a 24-point lead against North Carolina without Flagg, but a Jae’Lyn Withers lane violation allowed Jon Scheyer’s bunch to advance to the title game.
Louisville, meanwhile, held on against Clemson after blowing a double-digit lead with three minutes left.
Life without Flagg is interesting. Duke still has no shortage of talent, including two surefire top-10 NBA draft picks in Kon Knueppel and defensive anchor Khaman Maluach. Still, Duke is without Maliq Brown, the backup to Maluach, so it’s a bit thin.
Can Duke manage a cover without the National Player of the Year and another key cog? The line sits at Duke -6.5 (at the time of writing) compared to KenPom’s line of -10, which means Flagg accounts for over a possession worth of value.
I think that’s very accurate.
It’s not like Louisville is the model of health, either. The Cardinals played without Reyne Smith in the first two games of the ACC Tournament, and he’s the best shooter in the conference. That’s not even mentioning Kasean Pryor and Koren Johnson, who haven’t played in months.
Bettors might be reluctant to take Duke after how the UNC game ended. I get it, but we can’t ignore Duke once led by 24 points in the second half.
Plus, Louisville’s legs have to be getting a bit flimsy. It stormed back from a big deficit against Stanford and held on for dear life against Clemson. After two grueling games, facing the lengthy, physical Duke defense is a tough ask.
Louisville doesn’t have nearly as much shooting without Smith, too. It shot 34% and 27% in the first two games of the ACC Tournament.
Duke shot just 5-of-22 from deep versus UNC in the semis. Flagg isn’t an elite shooter, but his presence on the rim opens up perimeter looks. That means not having him is a real factor.
However, Tyrese Proctor and Isaiah Evans — two knockdown shooters — went 0-of-8 from downtown. I don’t see that continuing here, even without Flagg.
The Blue Devils’ defense remains dominant, ranking fourth in KenPom’s defensive efficiency while holding teams to a 44% effective field goal percentage and a 43% 2-point percentage.
Louisville is shooting just 33% from deep this year, with 48% of its shots coming from that area of the floor. It’ll need to turn the shooting woes around to have a real shot to beat Duke — or the Flagg-less Blue Devils could cruise.
I’m banking on the Blue Devils’ shooting and defense to lead them to a cover in the ACC title game.
Pick: Duke -5.5 (Play to -8)
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