College Basketball Picks for Saturday, March 1
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Connecticut Huskies” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uconn.png” secondfullname=”Providence Friars” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/prov.png”][/teammatchup] | 12 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Alabama Crimson Tide” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/Alabama-alternate-logo-100-100.png” secondfullname=”Tennessee Volunteers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png”][/teammatchup] | 4 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Arizona Wildcats” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ari.png” secondfullname=”Iowa State Cyclones” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/isu.png”][/teammatchup] | 9 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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We’ve officially reached the best time of the year: March. The first official conference tournament begins on Sunday — the ASUN — and we’re gearing up for an awesome month of hoops.
In celebration, our staff has three best bets for the first Saturday of the month.
So, read below for college basketball best bets and odds, including three NCAAB picks and predictions for Saturday, March 1.
(It’s not our official recommendation, but you can parlay these picks below.)
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”UConn vs. Providence Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”UConn -5.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/uconn.png” awayname=”Connecticut Huskies” awayslug=”connecticut-huskies” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/prov.png” homename=”Providence Friars” homeslug=”providence-friars” date=”Saturday, Mar. 1″ time=”12 p.m. ET” network=”CBS” bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
This line is far too low given the state of the Providence roster. Corey Floyd Jr. is back and Christ Essandoko is a role player who could return for this game, but Jabri Abdur-Rahim is a major factor, and he’s done for the season.
Without him, Providence is a completely different team with a much lower ceiling.
The ceiling was already limited, as we’ve seen throughout the Friars’ schedule. Providence has gone 1-8 against the KenPom top-50, with the lone win coming back on Dec. 3. In that game, Providence shot its best 3-point percentage of the season (55%), while BYU shot one of its worst (28%).
Without that insane shooting disparity, this team doesn’t have the talent on either end of the floor to compete with top level teams. UConn has had its struggles, but it’s still leagues better than Providence.
You may worry about the Huskies winning and covering this one on the road, but Connecticut has been ferocious away from home, winning at Creighton, Marquette and Texas this season.
Beyond that, Providence’s home court isn’t what it once was. Ed Cooley went 60-49 ATS and 70-39 SU in Big East games as the head coach of the Friars. Kim English is just 7-10 ATS and 8-9 SU in that same situation.
There’s just nothing to suggest Providence can compete here. I like UConn at this number, and I’ll even explore some escalating alternate lines.
Pick: UConn -5.5 (Play to -8.5)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Alabama vs. Tennessee Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Alabama +3.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/Alabama-alternate-logo-100-100.png” awayname=”Alabama Crimson Tide” awayslug=”alabama-crimson-tide” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ten.png” homename=”Tennessee Volunteers” homeslug=”tennessee-volunteers” date=”Saturday, Mar. 1″ time=”4 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
By Doug Ziefel
The best conference in the country has yet another marquee matchup on tap. The No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide will travel to Knoxville, Tennessee, to take on the No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers.
This clash has all the makings of a classic. The stakes are high, and contrasting styles make the result key for future matchups in March.
However, the road team offers value, as its style of play allows it to take control of this matchup with one run.
The Tide are the fastest team in the country in terms of adjusted tempo. That means they’re going to push the pace and put up a ton of shots. Nearly 48% of those shots are going to come from beyond the arc, and they’ve converted those at a solid rate, ranking 109th in the country.
While Tennessee is the best defensive team in the nation, it allows its opponents to take shots from long range. In fact, it ranks 339th in defensive 3-point rate. This is typically a sound strategy, as contested perimeter shots don’t pan out.
Still, Alabama’s extreme volume and offensive rebounding ability allows it to build momentum if the 3s start to fall.
On the other end of the court, Tennessee doesn’t present that offensive upside. The Vols rank 93rd in effective field goal percentage and have generated 75% of their offense from either beyond the arc or in the paint.
Those are two areas where the Crimson Tide match up well defensively, and any cold run could create some separation on the scoreboard.
Pick: Alabama +3.5 (Play to +2.5)
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[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Arizona vs. Iowa State Pick”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Iowa State -5.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ari.png” awayname=”Arizona Wildcats” awayslug=”arizona-wildcats” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/isu.png” homename=”Iowa State Cyclones” homeslug=”iowa-state-cyclones” date=”Saturday, Mar. 1″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”BetRivers” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/698811_BetRiver@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betrivers”][/gameheader]
While the bubble gets all the attention this time of the year in college hoops, there are equally important games being played between teams trying to improve their seed line.
The difference between a three- and a four-seed this season could be the difference between running smack dab into Auburn or Duke in the Sweet 16 as opposed to the Elite Eight.
And given how historically good both the Tigers and Blue Devils have been this season, teams are looking to delay a potential meeting for as long as possible.
With a full deck, Iowa State has suffered one outright loss all season long, and that came at the buzzer to Auburn during the Maui Invitational.
First, the Cyclones were without the services of stretch-four extraordinaire Milan Momcilovic. It was evident immediately that their spacing was off without Momcilovic, and they desperately missed his shooting stroke from deep (39.6% 3PT).
His absence also forced Iowa State to move Curtis Jones into the starting lineup. Jones was having one of the most impactful seasons a sixth man has ever had in major college basketball.
Instead of instant offense coming off the bench (Jones 16.9 PPG), ISU’s rotations were less efficient, and the team as a whole was more prone to scoring droughts.
T.J. Otzelberger’s team dropped four games without Momcilovic in the lineup and looked downright listless against Kansas State and Kansas. But after successful surgery on his non-shooting hand, Momcilovic returned and the offense quickly reverted to early-season form.
That was until Jones (walking pneumonia) and Keshon Gilbert (muscle strain) both missed the Houston game. With ISU missing its star guards, Houston cruised to a nine-point victory last Saturday. Jones would return the next game, but he was a shell of himself coming off his respiratory illness.
The good news is that practice reports confirm the return of Gilbert, and Otzelberger is optimistic that not only will both play on Saturday, but both could be close to 100%.
In their first meeting with Arizona out in the desert, Iowa State had Arizona nearly dead to rights late in the game. With a chance to ice it, Joshua Jefferson split a pair of free throws with three seconds remaining.
Instead of fouling, Iowa State opted to pressure the basket and conceded a three-quarters-court shot from Caleb Love. His desperation heave went in, and the Wildcats won in overtime, so revenge will be on ISU’s mind in this one.
I’m also in favor of fading Arizona when it takes its show on the road.
The main reason for this is that the Wildcats really struggle to knock down perimeter shots away from the McKale Center. At home, U-of-A shoots 33.8% from long range, but on the road, that percentage dips to 27.6% (350th).
For the Wildcats to beat Iowa State, they’ll need to generate quality looks inside the arc and at the rim.
From a points-per-possession perspective, Iowa State is excellent in the half-court (.83, 32nd), and it’s serviceable when it comes to slowing down opponents’ fast breaks.
In the first meeting, the Wildcats made 10 triples, scored 17 fast break points, won the turnover battle by two and snagged 10 offensive boards.
That still wasn’t enough for Arizona to take that game in regulation, which is why I’m comfortable laying up to the edge of two possessions with the Cyclones at Hilton Coliseum.
If Tommy Lloyd’s team suffers its normal shooting regression, struggles to trigger its transition game or is careless with the basketball, Iowa State has a chance to win this one going away.
Pick: Iowa State -5.5
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