March is in full swing, as mid-major conference tournaments have begun and bubble teams are fighting for their lives in high-major leagues.
I have three particular spots — combining the regular season action and the postseason action — I’m targeting for betting value in college basketball on Wednesday.
Read below for college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 5.
(If you want to parlay these picks, you can do so below.)
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College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Pitt Panthers” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Pitt-Panthers-Logo-100.png” secondfullname=”NC State Wolfpack” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png”][/teammatchup] | 7 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Chicago State Cougars” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/chs.png” secondfullname=”Long Island University Sharks” secondlogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/758194_1200px-LIU_Sharks_logo.svg_200x200.png”][/teammatchup] | 7 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Oral Roberts Golden Eagles” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/Oral-Roberts-Logo-Updated-2023-100.png” secondfullname=”Kansas City Roos” secondlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2022/10/Kansas-City-Roos-2022.png”][/teammatchup] | 8 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pitt vs. NC State”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”NC State +2.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/11/2021-Pitt-Panthers-Logo-100.png” awayname=”Pitt Panthers” awayslug=”pittsburgh-panthers” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2021/12/NC-State-alternate-logo-100.png” homename=”NC State Wolfpack” homeslug=”north-carolina-state-wolfpack” date=”Wednesday, March 5″ time=”7 p.m. ET” network=”ESPNEWS” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Pitt seems to be running out the clock on a disastrous 2025.
Since the turn of the new year, the Panthers are 6-11 straight up and 4-13 against the spread. Losers of three straight (and five straight on the road), Pitt’s chemistry has deteriorated, and its results have followed suit.
NC State’s sequel to its Final Four run won’t be winning any Oscars, but if you’re going to bet on the Wolfpack, you might as well do it when they’re at home in the friendly confines of the Lenovo Center. NC State hasn’t won a game on the road all season but is a respectable 11-6 at home.
The Wolfpack knocked off Wake Forest last time they were in Raleigh, and they can do the same to Pitt on Wednesday.
Ball handling is key when going against a Pitt team that forces turnovers at the third-highest rate in the ACC. NC State doesn’t do much right offensively, but it does protect the rock at an elite level. A deep backcourt of ball handlers platoon to form a reliable ignition switch to the offense.
Ideally, the Wolfpack can get into transition, as their half-court stalls regularly. But to date, the Pitt defense has been good about getting back and preventing easy scores.
Pitt’s offense has fallen off a cliff in conference play, and it can be highly inefficient with its “my turn, your turn” tendencies.
Ball screens for Pitt’s talented guards and isolation sets are the key actions in Jeff Capel’s half-court attack.
NC State’s weakness this season has been defending the rim and paint, but it’s been stout defending pick-and-rolls. A perimeter-oriented team like NC State should fare well against a jump shot-happy Pitt squad not looking to pound the ball at the rim.
Fade Pitt as it counts down the days until the offseason. NC State should be game to put up a fight on senior night and try to save a little face as ACC play winds down.
Pick: NC State +2.5 (Play to +1)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Chicago State vs. LIU”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Chicago State +12.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/chs.png” awayname=”Chicago State Cougars” awayslug=”chicago-state-cougars” homelogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/758194_1200px-LIU_Sharks_logo.svg_200x200.png” homename=”Long Island University Sharks” homeslug=”long-island-university-sharks” date=”Wednesday, March 5″ time=”7 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN+” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
Quarterfinal Round of the NEC Tournament
Conference tournament time is the best time of the year and one of the most unpredictable ones. Double-digit spreads can feel like mountains to overcome, as underdogs give it their all with their final wind before closing the books on their season.
On paper, LIU is categorically better than Chicago State. The Sharks boast the NEC’s best defense; the Cougars are the worst offensive team in the league.
Even CSU’s former coach, the brilliant Gerald Gillion, is currently on staff at LIU — one of the key reasons Rod Strickland’s squad has seen a major turnaround this season.
But Chicago State plays hard and has actually beaten LIU this year in an OT thriller in Chicago. In two games, CSU has held LIU to 0.87 and 0.94 points per possession. There’s something about this matchup the Cougars like.
A double-digit spread is mighty high for an LIU team that’s struggled to score in two meetings.
The turnover battle will be key. Chicago State gets in its opponent’s jock defensively, forcing the third-highest turnover rate in the NEC, and the Cougars press at a near top-100 rate in the country.
LIU is the worst ball-handling team in the league, sporting an awful 20.5% turnover rate. The Shark ball handlers can be exploited, including Strickland’s son, Terell Strickland, who has a 28.7% turnover rate (that’s bad).
On the other end, LIU forces turnovers at the highest rate in the NEC, but CSU is a solid ball-handling team with a versatile perimeter.
For CSU to hang, it needs to muck this game up and limit possessions. The Cougars did that successfully in both contests this season, playing 61 and 71 (overtime) possessions. A game with possessions ultimately in the low-60s favors the underdog Cougars.
Of course, hitting a few 3s would go a long way, too. Chicago State attempts the NEC’s fourth-highest rate of triples on the year and is basically feast-or-famine from deep, as it doesn’t get to the rim, nor can it finish at the rim.
In a conference tournament setting, high variance is the big ‘dog’s friend.
Hold your nose and take some postseason action on the plucky Chicago State Cougars playing their first NEC Tournament.
Pick: Chicago State +12.5 (Play to +12)
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Oral Roberts vs. Kansas City”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Kansas City -5.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/Oral-Roberts-Logo-Updated-2023-100.png” awayname=”Oral Roberts Golden Eagles” awayslug=”oral-roberts-golden-eagles” homelogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2022/10/Kansas-City-Roos-2022.png” homename=”Kansas City Roos” homeslug=”umkc-kangaroos” date=”Wednesday, March 5″ time=”8 p.m. ET” network=”Summit League Network” bookname=”BetMGM” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/779359_BetMGM800x200@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”betmgm”][/gameheader]
First Round of the Summit League Tournament
Defense travels in the postseason. The Summit League isn’t known for its defense — it’s the most efficient conference in America — but there are still levels to the tenacity and stopability in this league.
Kansas City is the best defensive team in the Summit, which should come as no surprise to those familiar with head coach Marvin Menzies’ physical, gritty and unrelenting style.
Oral Roberts is at the polar opposite end of the spectrum. The worst defense in the worst defensive league in the country, ORU ranks 347th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
These teams split the regular-season series. The Roos dominated Game 1 by 23 points; the Golden Eagles took Game 2 by six.
Shooting from 3-point range was key in both matchups, which is bad news for Kansas City, the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference.
Luckily for them, the Roos are animals on the offensive glass and should have a massive advantage against the rebound-deficient Golden Eagles. Misses should only lead to second chances.
Menzies knows ORU relies on its shooting to win ball games, and his team has been excellent at denying triples this season, ranking third in the Summit in 3-point attempt rate allowed and first in 3-point percentage allowed.
Kansas City’s perimeter is also long, featuring a 6-foot-4, 6-foot-5, 6-foot-6 triumvirate for the majority of the game.
ORU has a game-breaker in Issac McBride, one of the premier talents in the Summit. But Kansas City has one too in Jamar Brown, whose offensive approach is a deadly combination of basket attacks and bombs away from deep.
He leads the league in minutes and is one of the best scorers and shooters in the Summit.
The pair will no doubt go blow for blow throughout the contest, but Brown has the better supporting cast and far better defensive help.
Oral Roberts hasn’t won a game away from Tulsa all season, and that doesn’t figure to change on Wednesday up in Sioux Falls.
Kansas City should exert its will physically, take the first-round tilt and head into a matchup with top-seed Omaha on Thursday.
Pick: Kansas City -5.5 (Play to -6)
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