We have a massive Saturday slate on deck, but before we get there, some teams have their season hanging in the balance on Friday night, and there’s an intriguing Big Ten tilt also happening.
But there’s also betting value, too.
So, read below, for my college basketball best bets, including three NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Friday evening — March 7.
(There’s a parlay option for these three picks below.)
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College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Purdue Boilermakers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/pur.png” secondfullname=”Illinois Fighting Illini” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ill.png”][/teammatchup] | 8 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”South Florida Bulls” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/usfn.png” secondfullname=”Memphis Tigers” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mem.png”][/teammatchup] | 9 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”Pepperdine Waves” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/pepp.png” secondfullname=”Portland Pilots” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/port.png”][/teammatchup] | 9 p.m. | |
|
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Purdue vs. Illinois”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Over 159.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/pur.png” awayname=”Purdue Boilermakers” awayslug=”purdue-boilermakers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ill.png” homename=”Illinois Fighting Illini” homeslug=”illinois-fighting-illini” date=”Friday, March 7″ time=”8 p.m. ET” network=”FOX” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
Illinois is starting to find its level after limping – literally and figuratively – through an injury- and illness-riddled January and February.
Brad Underwood’s team looked how he envisioned on Sunday at Michigan, racking up 1.33 points per possession, and Purdue’s vulnerable interior defense could make for another efficient performance.
Underwood’s offensive scheme this year is designed to generate open 3s, but the Illini have also been a buzzsaw when they do attack the paint.
Illinois ranks 14th nationally in 2-point percentage offense, led by pro prospect Kasparas Jakucionis as a jumbo point guard and Tomislav Ivisic’s outstanding finishing around the rim.
Purdue’s defense, meanwhile, ranks 337th nationally and last in the Big Ten in 2-point percentage allowed.
Of course, Illinois may not be able to get many stops, either. Its drop coverage against ball screens is designed to force the ball-handler to be a scorer.
Braden Smith, Purdue’s maestro of a point guard, will greedily gobble up all the space afforded to him and is fully capable of torching the nets with jumpers off the bounce. He routinely feasts against drop coverage.
Big man Trey Kaufman-Renn is the other ultra-consistent source of offense for the Boilers, and his scoring on the block will be crucial in this game. Illinois doesn’t want to leave shooters along the perimeter, so TKR will consistently see single coverage.
Tempo-wise, both teams are willing to run opportunistically. Illinois especially loves to play in transition, and Smith will get Purdue out in the open floor at times.
Efficiency is the most likely source of success here, but a couple of extra possessions would certainly be welcome.
Pick: Over 159.5 (Play to 163)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”USF vs. Memphis”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”USF +13.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/usfn.png” awayname=”South Florida Bulls” awayslug=”south-florida-bulls” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/mem.png” homename=”Memphis Tigers” homeslug=”memphis-tigers” date=”Friday, March 7″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN2″ bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
First of all, congratulations to Memphis for clinching the top seed in the American Conference Tournament! Penny Hardaway’s squad is a game up in the standings and holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over North Texas.
Memphis deserved to celebrate. And I hope it did all week, late into the night.
Whether there’s a (literal or figurative) hangover effect or not, the Tigers as a big home favorite are a clear fade.
Over the last two seasons, Memphis is 1-14 against the spread as a double-digit home favorite. That’s part of a 2-19-1 stretch in that situation under Hardaway.
And that was when the Tigers weren’t celebrating a conference title.
South Florida has battled of late, losing by single-digits to top American squads North Texas (64-57), UAB (85-78) and FAU (69-63).
Memphis won by 15 in the first meeting, but that result was mostly about USF’s frigid perimeter shooting (7-of-29 from deep, 24.1%). USF held Memphis to just 42.9% shooting inside the arc, which should be sustainable from game-to-game.
Granted, USF is locked into the No. 9 seed in the American Tournament. But a shot at the league’s top dog should keep the Bulls engaged.
Be forewarned: There’s a spot tax here. KenPom makes this game -17, while Bart Torvik has it -17.4. The number reflects the chances that the Tigers — locked into an at-large bid for the NCAA Tournament and with no seeding to play for — could limit minutes for key players.
I had planned to make this a multi-unit wager, but the number is enough to temper my zeal.
Pick: USF +13.5 (Play to +12)
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Pepperdine vs. Portland”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Portland -1.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/pepp.png” awayname=”Pepperdine Waves” awayslug=”pepperdine-waves” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/port.png” homename=”Portland Pilots” homeslug=”portland-pilots” date=”Friday, March 7″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN+” bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
WCC Tournament Second Round
The WCC Tournament ladder is an even longer climb with the additions of Oregon State and Washington State.
Portland and Pepperdine start near the bottom of that ladder, playing to earn a Saturday slot against Oregon State.
This handicap is relatively simple for me: Portland is playing significantly better recently than it did early in the season. At their nadir, the Pilots sat a dismal 327th in KenPom. As recently as Feb. 13, they were 315th.
Now, after winning four of their final six (and battling at Saint Mary’s in one of the losses), Portland is up to 262nd. Since the start of February, Shantay Legans’ squad ranks an extremely impressive 115th nationally, per Bart Torvik.
That drastic improvement makes sense for a well-coached team that starts two freshmen. Legans opted to build from within, rather than scooping up a bunch of quick fixes from the portal. That patience has finally paid off with Portland’s impressive close to the campaign.
The Pilots’ recent surge includes two convincing wins over this Pepperdine squad. The Pilots swept the series by a combined 40 points, with the two meetings bookending the month of February.
Neither matchup was fluky, either: The Pilots won the rebounding battle both times, and they shot better from 2-point range, as well.
While Portland has surged, Pepperdine has faded. The Waves rank 273rd, per Bart Torvik, since the start of February.
I’ll be riding the much hotter team that’s dominated both matchups already.
Pick: Portland -1.5 (Play to -3)
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