Happy March! The ASUN Tournament began on Sunday and on Monday, we have some juicy college basketball matchups with betting value.
I’m targeting three particular games for my best bets.
So, without further ado, read below for my college basketball best bets, including three top NCAAB expert picks and predictions for Monday, March 3.
(My official recommendation is not to parlay these picks, but there’s an option below.)
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College Basketball Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college basketball betting staff is targeting from today’s slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| [teammatchup link=”#1″ firstfullname=”Wake Forest Demon Deacons” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wf.png” secondfullname=”Duke Blue Devils” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png”][/teammatchup] | 7 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#2″ firstfullname=”Wichita State Shockers” firstlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wich.png” secondfullname=”North Texas Mean Green” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ntx.png”][/teammatchup] | 9 p.m. | |
| [teammatchup link=”#3″ firstfullname=”UCLA Bruins” firstlogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/ucla-bruins-logo-updated-2023.png” secondfullname=”Northwestern Wildcats” secondlogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/nw.png”][/teammatchup] | 9 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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[anchor name=”1″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wake Forest vs. Duke”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 145″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wf.png” awayname=”Wake Forest Demon Deacons” awayslug=”wake-forest-demon-deacons” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/dukd.png” homename=”Duke Blue Devils” homeslug=”duke-blue-devils” date=”Monday, March 3″ time=”7 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN” bookname=”Caesars Sportsbook” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/256064_caesars_800x200.png” bookreviewslug=”caesars-sportsbook”][/gameheader]
It’s now or never for Wake Forest.
The Demon Deacons’ dwindling at-large hopes desperately need the shot of adrenaline that would come from a massive win over a No. 1 seed (just ask Georgia). That’s far easier said than done, but when you lose at home to Florida State and Virginia, you have to make up for it somehow.
The first meeting between these two Tobacco Road foes was a grueling 63-56 Duke victory. Wake Forest went on an extended 25-4 run to start the second half, suffocating a typically lethal Duke offense.
Wake’s defense has been its strength for most of the year, keeping the team competitive despite being an awful 3-point shooting squad.
That same path is how the Deacs could keep this game competitive: try to keep it in the half-court as much as possible and use their athleticism to force a massive diet of tough Duke jumpers.
The total in the first game closed at 136 and shows a significant jump about six weeks later. The Blue Devils’ offense has caught fire since then, which helps justify that increase. But I think the rise is too severe.
Some personnel shakeups make this a little risky.
Duke’s Tyrese Proctor and Maliq Brown, two fantastic defenders, are likely out for this game. Their absences open up minutes for flammable shooters Darren Harris, Isaiah Evans and Mason Gillis, all of whom could tilt things toward the over.
However, Wake’s frustrating offense and my expectations for the game’s pace offset the concerns.
Pick: Under 145 (Play to 141)
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[anchor name=”2″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”Wichita State vs. North Texas”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”Under 127.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/wich.png” awayname=”Wichita State Shockers” awayslug=”wichita-state-shockers” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/ntx.png” homename=”North Texas Mean Green” homeslug=”north-texas-mean-green” date=”Monday, March 3″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”ESPN2″ bookname=”DraftKings ” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/477013_DraftKings@1x.png” bookreviewslug=”draftkings”][/gameheader]
The first meeting between these two American foes was an easy under.
North Texas completely controlled the pace in a 58-54 victory, holding the game to just 58 possessions. That remains the slowest game Wichita State has played this season by a wide margin.
With North Texas now at home, I expect that dominance over the tempo to continue. The last four North Texas home games have featured 62, 56, 59 and 61 possessions, respectively. Clearly, the Mean Green want to play in the half-court, and they know how to dictate the game to that effect.
Efficiency also lagged in the first matchup. Both teams shot below 45% from 2-point range, struggling mightily to find easy buckets inside.
The Shockers’ Quincy Ballard swatted six shots to keep them in it, while UNT’s scheme forced a bevy of challenging Wichita State jumpers. And the Shockers can’t shoot, especially from deep (29.9% this season from beyond the arc, 341st nationally).
From a number perspective, the total in the first game closed at 134. Obviously, this total is significantly lower, but I think it’s justified.
The Shockers have proven to be a “pace taker,” seemingly content to play at the speed of their foes. And North Texas will certainly keep the game in a half-court grind.
Six of the last eight UNT games have gone under and nine of the last 12 Wichita contests have done the same.
Pick: Under 127.5 (Play to 126)
[anchor name=”3″][/anchor]
[subheader sizedown=”false” text=”UCLA vs. Northwestern”][/subheader]
[gameheader haspick=”true” picktext=”UCLA -3.5″ league=”ncaab” awaylogo=”https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2023/07/ucla-bruins-logo-updated-2023.png” awayname=”UCLA Bruins” awayslug=”ucla-bruins” homelogo=”https://static.sprtactn.co/teamlogos/ncaab/100/nw.png” homename=”Northwestern Wildcats” homeslug=”northwestern-wildcats” date=”Monday, March 3″ time=”9 p.m. ET” network=”FS1″ bookname=”FanDuel” bookprimarylogo=”https://assets.actionnetwork.com/122955_FanDuelSportsBook@1x.jpg” bookreviewslug=”fanduel”][/gameheader]
Mick Cronin’s aversions to these frequent road trips to the Midwest are well-documented. That kind of travel can be a heavy burden on the players
Fortunately for the Bruins, they’ve been in the region for a few days already. They played at Purdue on Friday, which is an easy drive to Chicago for a weekend in the city.
The last time UCLA had this kind of trip, it narrowly won and covered at Indiana (won 72-68 as a two-point favorite). This matchup is extremely similar, taking on a squad ranking just inside the top 50 in KenPom as a short road favorite.
Northwestern, though, isn’t the same team it was for most of the season. Starters Brooks Barnhizer and Jalen Leach are both out for the season, kneecapping the Wildcats’ offense and forcing a different style on coach Chris Collins.
Without that duo, Northwestern has to play in the mud, slowing the game down and turning it into a physical brawl.
Unfortunately for them, the Wildcats merely adopted the dark; Mick Cronin and UCLA were born in it.
The Bruins thrive in such physical slogs, using their ball pressure and impressive frontcourt to bludgeon opponents into submission.
This one very likely won’t be pretty. I don’t anticipate a blowout. But given the current structure of both teams — coupled with UCLA’s comfort in this style and lack of travel — I think UCLA can eventually pull away.
Pick: UCLA -3.5 (Play to -4)
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